Generation of stochastic earthquake ground motion in western Saudi Arabia as a first step in development of regional gro
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Generation of stochastic earthquake ground motion in western Saudi Arabia as a first step in development of regional ground motion prediction model Vladimir Sokolov 1 & Hani Mahmoud Zahran 1 Received: 12 September 2017 / Accepted: 8 January 2018 / Published online: 17 January 2018 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2018
Abstract Earthquake ground motion model is an essential part of seismic hazard assessment. The model consists in several empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that are considered to be applicable to the given region. When the recorded ground motion data are scarce, numerical modeling of ground motion based on available seismological information is widely used. We describe results of stochastic simulation of ground motion acceleration records for western Saudi Arabia. The simulation was performed using the finite fault model and considering peak ground acceleration and amplitudes of spectral acceleration at natural frequencies 0.2 and 1.0 s. Based on the parameters of the input seismological model that were accepted in similar previous studies, we analyze influence of variations in the source factor (stress drop) and in the local attenuation and amplification factors (kappa value, crustal amplification). These characteristics of the model are considered as the major contributors to the ground motion variability. The results of our work show that distribution of simulated ground motion parameters versus magnitude and distance reveals an agreement with the GMPEs recently used in seismic hazard assessment for the region. Collection of credible information about seismic source, propagation path, and site attenuation parameters using the regional ground motion database would allow constraining the seismological model and developing regional GMPEs. The stochastic simulation based on regional seismological model may be applied for generation of ground motion time histories used for development of analytical fragility curves for typical constructions in the region. Keywords Stochastic simulation . Ground motion model . Western Saudi Arabia
Introduction The seismic hazard analysis, either deterministic or probabilistic, is based on estimation of parameters of earthquake ground motion at a particular site of interest during an earthquake with specified magnitude and source-to-site distance. Deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis focuses on a few number of the largest magnitude earthquakes expected from each seismic source (maximum credible earthquakes, MCE) and occurred at the smallest distance from the site of interest (e.g., Klügel et al. 2006). Ground motion
* Vladimir Sokolov [email protected] 1
National Center for Earthquakes and Volcanoes, Saudi Geological Survey, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
modeling in this case may consist in the direct use of different methods for waveform modeling to produce a set of synthetic time histories. Recently (see Zuccolo et al. 2011 and Panza et al. 2013, for a review), so-called neo-deterministic approach for estimat
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