Impact of population density on Covid-19 infected and mortality rate in India
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Impact of population density on Covid‑19 infected and mortality rate in India Arunava Bhadra1 · Arindam Mukherjee1 · Kabita Sarkar2 Received: 22 August 2020 / Accepted: 3 October 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The Covid-19 is a highly contagious disease which becomes a serious global health concern. The residents living in areas with high population density, such as big or metropolitan cities, have a higher probability to come into close contact with others and consequently any contagious disease is expected to spread rapidly in dense areas. However, recently, after analyzing Covid-19 cases in the USA researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, London school of economics, and IZA—Institute of Labour Economics conclude that the spread of Covid-19 is not linked with population density. Here, we investigate the influence of population density on Covid-19 spread and related mortality in the context of India. After a detailed correlation and regression analysis of infection and mortality rates due to Covid-19 at the district level, we find moderate association between Covid-19 spread and population density. Keywords Covid-19 · Infection and mortality rate · Population density · India
Introduction The emergence and continuous spreading of the highly contagious disease Covid-19 leads the World in a very distressing stage. The disease has severe adverse effects on the world economy, as well as on many aspects of human lives like employment, education, physical and mental health of individuals, etc. In the absence of any precise medicine for the treatment of Covid-19 or any effective vaccine to prevent it, several efforts are made, based on the available pandemic data, in modeling the Covid-19 cases to understand the dynamics of infections (Chen et al. 2020a, b; Roy et al. 2020; Rahman et al. 2020) and subsequently forecasting about the future course of the pandemic for scheming strategies to quickly contain the spreading of the infections by other means like physical distancing, lockdown, etc.
* Arunava Bhadra [email protected]; [email protected] 1
High Energy and Cosmic Ray Research Centre, University of North Bengal, Siliguri, WB 734013, India
Department of Mathematics, Swami Vivekananda Institute of Science Technology, Dakshin Gobindapur, Kolkata 700145, India
2
The modeling of transmission of any infectious disease relies on several factors associated with the disease. A number of studies suggest that Covid-19 infection is associated with meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, etc. In particular, below 3 °C, the number of COVID-19 infections in China is found to have a positive linear association with average temperature (Zhu and Xie 2020). A similar correlation between temperature and Covid-19 cases is also found in several Countries and cities, like India (Gupta et al. 2020), Indonesia (Tosepu et al. 2020), Turkey (Şahin 2020), New York (USA) (Bashir et al. 2020), as well as on a worldwide scale (Chen et al.
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