Information diffusion theory-based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Bas
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Information diffusion theory‑based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin Yu Xiaobing1,2 · Li Chenliang1 · Huo Tongzhao1 · Ji Zhonghui1 Received: 25 March 2020 / Accepted: 4 November 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The Yangtze River Basin is one of the three plain areas in China, and it spans eleven regions and serves as an important economic belt. The Yangtze River Basin is a region with frequent meteorological disasters and is affected by south-east and south-west monsoons. With a dense population, the economy in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has rapidly developed, and the agricultural economy has made significant contributions to China. Therefore, it is of far-reaching significance to study the influence of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin. Using information diffusion theory, this research analyses the impacts of five frequent natural disasters (floods, drought, convective storms, low temperatures, and typhoons) on selected areas from 2001 to 2006 (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Tibet, and Qinghai). Three agricultural indicators: affected area (A), covered area (C), and demolished area (D), are adopted to illustrate the economic losses caused by natural disasters. The method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) framework is used to calculate the weights of the five disaster categories. The results are that Shanghai is severely affected by typhoons; Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Tibet, and Hunan are under the highest pressure of floods; Yunnan and Qinghai are under the strongest influence of droughts. Generally, agriculture production in the Yangtze River Basin is greatly affected by flood and drought disasters. Finally, some suggestions for dealing with meteorological disasters are proposed. Keywords Information diffusion · Meteorological disasters · Risk assessment · Yangtze River Basin
* Yu Xiaobing [email protected] 1
School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Catastrophic events associated with extreme weather are increasing in the context of global climate change. Assessing agricultural disaster risks is of considerable significance in formulating disaster prevention and improving farmers’ income (Liu et al. 2019b). Although the status of agricultural production in the process of economic development has gradually declined due to the rapid growth of the economy, it is undeniable that agriculture plays a significant role in ensuring people’s living standards and the stable operation of the national economy. The process of agricultural production always faces natural risks. Among them, meteorological disasters in natural threats are particularly
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