Investigating spatiotemporal dynamics and trade-off/synergy of multiple ecosystem services in response to land cover cha
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Investigating spatiotemporal dynamics and trade-off/ synergy of multiple ecosystem services in response to land cover change: a case study of Nanjing city, China Jie Zhao & Cheng Li
Received: 30 July 2020 / Accepted: 5 October 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Investigating the spatiotemporal trends and trade-off/synergy relationships among ecosystem services can provide effective support for urban planning and decision making toward sustainable development. With Nanjing city in China as a case study, this study assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of six key ecosystem services from 2005 to 2030. Integration of Markov-cellular automata and ecosystem services models was realized to analyze the potential impacts of future urbanization on ecosystem services by simulating business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological restoration (ER) scenarios. Furthermore, an innovative trade-off/synergy degree was developed to quantify the magnitude of the complex relationship among the multiple ecosystem services under the different scenarios. Due to the rapid expansion of built-up land, carbon storage, habitat quality, and air purification decreased 2.92%, 5.80%, and 7.91%, respectively. The CP scenario exhibited the highest crop production values, and the ER scenario was a better urban
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08663-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. J. Zhao Belt & Road Institute, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221009, China e-mail: [email protected] C. Li (*) School of Architecture & Design, China University of Mining and Technology, DaXue Road 1, Xuzhou 221116 Jiangsu, China e-mail: [email protected]
development strategy that enhanced the regulating ecosystem services at the expense of crop production. To promote urban ecosystem services and minimize tradeoffs, we proposed certain future urban development strategies, including ecological corridor construction and compact development. The study could provide a scientific reference for the effective ecosystem management of Nanjing and other rapidly urbanized regions. Keywords Ecosystem services . Trade-offs . Land cover change . Markov-CA model . Scenarios . Urban planning
Introduction Ecosystem services refer to the direct or indirect products and services obtained from ecosystems that are prerequisites for the survival, health, and livelihood of the human population (Raudsepp-Hearne et al. 2010). Ecosystem services can be divided into four types: supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services, which are crucial for human well being (Costanza et al. 1997; Kragt and Robertson 2014). According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) report, approximately 60% of the world’s ecosystem services exhibit a degradation trend, which have a serious impact on human well-being and directly threaten the sustainable development (MEA 2005). This is especially the case in urban area, where the ecosystem services experienced s
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