Lessons from Influenza Outbreaks for Potential Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on Hospitalizations, Ventilator Use, and Mort
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INTRODUCTION
Increasing numbers of patients infected by COVID-19 is raising serious concerns about the potential shortage of hospital beds and ventilators in cities such as New York City. The homeless population is particularly large in urban areas and will become larger given the economic crisis.1, 2 They are high-risk of contagious diseases3 (as shelters and drop-in centers are crowded with an active turnover of people), and the outbreak among this population would negatively impact the health care system’s ability to respond to this crisis. However, little is understood how the outbreak of infectious diseases among the homeless population affects health systems’ resources (e.g., hospital beds, ventilators) and availability of resources for non-homeless population. To address this knowledge gap, using influenza outbreaks as an example, we investigated health care use among the homeless population hospitalized in New York State.
METHODS
We used the 2007–2012 New York State Inpatient Database that includes all inpatient discharge records from acute care hospitals. We identified all hospitalizations with primary or secondary diagnosis of influenza (ICD9-CM code 487.xx or 488.xx) from July 2007 to June 2012 (median age 40 years [IQR 6–66]). Homeless patients were identified from the homeless status indicator, which was directly reported by hospitals.4 We calculated monthly trends of hospitalization rates (/1000 person-months) in the homeless and nonhomeless populations. Population estimates (denominator) were derived from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development Continuum of Care data for the homeless population,1 and the US Census Bureau data for the non-homeless population.5 Next, we compared the utilization of care and patient outcomes (hospitalization through emergency department [ED], Received April 7, 2020 Accepted April 28, 2020
mechanical ventilation use [non-invasive or invasive], and in-hospital death) between homeless versus nonhomeless patients using multivariable modified Poisson regression models. We adjusted for patient characteristics and year-month fixed effects. The study was approved by the UCLA Institutional Review Board.
RESULTS
Of the 20,078 patients hospitalized for influenza across 214 hospitals in New York, 1295 (6.4%) were homeless patients. Most hospitalizations (99.9%) among homeless individuals were concentrated in ten hospitals. Homeless patients experienced a higher rate of hospitalization for influenza than non-homeless persons throughout the observation period (Fig. 1). The difference was particularly salient for the pandemic of H1N1 influenza in 2009: hospitalization rates were 2.9 per 1000 for homeless versus 0.1 per 1000 for non-homeless populations. After adjusting for potential confounders, homeless patients were more likely to be hospitalized from ED (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 1.09; 95% CI 1.04–1.14; P < 0.001) and receive mechanical ventilation (aRR, 1.58; 95% CI 1.03–2.43; P = 0.04), compared with non-homeless patients (Table 1). We found no evidence that the i
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