MaxEnt prediction for potential risk of mango wilt caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata Ellis and Halst under different clim
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
MaxEnt prediction for potential risk of mango wilt caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata Ellis and Halst under different climate change scenarios in India Prabhat Kumar Shukla 1 & Gundappa Baradevanal 1 & Shailendra Rajan 1 & Tahseen Fatima 1 Received: 12 February 2019 / Accepted: 25 January 2020 # Società Italiana di Patologia Vegetale (S.I.Pa.V.) 2020
Abstract Wilt of mango caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata has become a great threat to mango production in Bangladesh, Brazil, Oman, Pakistan, Spain and very recently in India also. In the present study potential distribution of mango wilt in India was predicted under different climate change scenarios by ecological niche modeling by MaxEnt. Study revealed that cutting across the different scenarios precipitation of wettest month, precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, isothermality were the significant factors in determining the disease distribution. Highest suitability areas for the disease occurrence under current scenario was predicted in southern parts of Jammu and Kashmir, southern Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, western and central Uttar Pradesh, western part of Bihar, western part of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Under future climate scenarios in 2050 highest suitability areas were predicted in parts of southern Jammu and Kashmir and western Bihar; whereas in 2070 scenario the highest suitability of disease occurrence was predicted in Uttar Pradesh, Jammu Kashmir, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. This study provides important information on the risk of C. fimbriata wilt using a MaxEnt model in India. The results can be utilized in strategic planning to prevent further spread of disease. Keywords Mango . Ceratocystis fimbriata . Climate change . MaxEnt prediction
Introduction Mango (Mangifera indica L.) is popularly called as ‘king of fruits’, grown in tropics and subtropics all over the world. Several studies have reported the impact of climate change on mango. It has been found that air temperature and rainfall are the two most important factors influencing the suitability of geographical areas for the commercial cultivation of mango. It has been observed that climate-related changes have influenced the flowering and fruiting behavior of mango (Rajan et al. 2013). Apart from climate, insect pests and diseases are also considered as important constraints for mango cultivation. Among the diseases, mango wilt was reported as a major emerging disease in India (Shukla et al. 2018). Till 1960, the wilting of mango trees
* Prabhat Kumar Shukla [email protected] 1
ICAR- Central Institute for Subtropical Horticulture, Lucknow, UP 226 101, India
was considered a disease of minor importance, when Ceratocystis wilt was reported by Iton during 1960. Some other pathogens (Botryosphaeria, Diplodia, Lasiodiplodia, Fusarium, Fusicoccum, Physalospora, Phytophthora, Pythium, Rhizoctonia and Sclerotium) have also been considered associated with mango wilt and decline (Ploetz and Prakash 1997; Misra 2004; Al-Adawi et al. 2006; Saeed et al.
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