Mental Modeling Approach Risk Management Application Case Studies

This book provides an easy-to-read, user-oriented introduction to mental models research and Mental Modeling TechnologyTM.  Mental models are powerful influences human behavior. The book offers insight from the developers and most experienced applica

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Matthew D. Wood Sarah Thorne Daniel Kovacs Gordon Butte Igor Linkov

Mental Modeling Approach

Risk Management Application Case Studies

Risk, Systems and Decisions

Series Editors Igor Linkov U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center and Carnegie Mellon University Concord, Massachusetts, USA Jeffrey Keisler University of Massachusetts Boston, Massachusetts, USA James H. Lambert University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia, USA Jose Figueira University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13439

Matthew D. Wood  •  Sarah Thorne Daniel Kovacs • Gordon Butte • Igor Linkov

Mental Modeling Approach Risk Management Application Case Studies

Matthew D. Wood U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Carnegie Mellon University Concord, MA, USA

Sarah Thorne Decision. Partners Inc. Decision Partners, LLC Mississagua, ON, CAN

Daniel Kovacs Decision Partners, LLC Pittsburgh, PA, USA

Gordon Butte Decision Partners, LLC Pittsburgh, PA, USA

Igor Linkov U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Carnegie Mellon University Concord, MA, USA

Risk, Systems and Decisions ISBN 978-1-4939-6614-1    ISBN 978-1-4939-6616-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4939-6616-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016951930 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Permission was granted by the Chief of Engineers, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, to publish this material. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the individual authors and not those of the U.S. Army. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media LLC The registered company address is: 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, U.S.A.

Mental Modeling is dedicated to … Baruch Fischhoff, for teaching us, inspiring us, and supporting the application of mental modeling research to solve real-world problems; The Department of Engineering and Public Policy,