Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations Xiaochen Liu . Zhan Tian . Laixiang Sun . Junguo Liu . Wei Wu . Hanqing Xu . Landong Sun . Chunfang Wang
Received: 22 October 2019 / Accepted: 2 April 2020 Ó The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then
constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the
X. Liu W. Wu L. Sun Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Services, Shanghai 200030, China e-mail: [email protected]
L. Sun International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
X. Liu W. Wu L. Sun Key Laboratory of Cities’ Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai, Shanghai 200092, China
H. Xu Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Z. Tian (&) J. Liu School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China e-mail: [email protected]
C. Wang Shanghai Center of Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai 200336, China
L. Sun (&) Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA e-mail: [email protected] L. Sun School of Finance and Management, SOAS University of London, Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK
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Environ Geochem Health
number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40–60 (15.8–19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50–70 (17.7–21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate. Keywords Heat waves Mortality Public health System dynamics model
Introduction The fifth assessment report of the IPCC clearly stated that the world had warmed by approximately 0.85 °C from 1880 to 2012 and that extreme temperatures such as heat wav
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