Output and Employment Fluctuations
This book consists of four parts: I. Labour demand and supply, II. Productivity slowdown and innovative activity, III. Disequilibrium and business cycle analysis, and IV. Time series analysis of output and employment. It presents a fine selection of artic
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Klaus F. Zimmermann (Ed.)
Output and Employment Fluctuations With 25 Figures
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Editorial Board Wolfgang Franz, University of Konstanz, FRG Baldev Raj, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada Andreas Worgotter, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria
Editor Professor Dr. Klaus F. Zimmermann SELAPO Universitiit Munchen D-80539 Munchen, Germany and CEPR 23-25 Old Burlington Street London WIXILB, United Kingdom
First published in "Recherches Economiques de Louvain", VoI. 58, No. 3-4, De BoeckWesmael S. A., Brussels, Belgium 1992
ISBN 978-3-642-63426-0 CIP-Titelaufnahme der Deutschen Bibliothek Output and employment fluctuations / Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.). - Heidelberg : Physica-VerI., 1994 (Studies in empirical economics)
ISBN 978-3-642-63426-0 ISBN 978-3-642-57989-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-57989-9
NE: Zimmermann, Klaus F. [Hrsg.]
This work is subject to copyright. Ali rights are reserved, whether the whole or part ofthe material is concemed, specifically the rights oftranslation, reprinting, reuse ofillustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication ofthis publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions ofthe German CopyrightLaw ofSeptember9, 1965, in its version ofJune 24, 1985, anda copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act ofthe German Copyright Law. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1994 Originally published by Physica-Verlag Heidelberg in 1994 Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover Ist edition 1994
The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. 88/2202-543210 - Printed on acid-free paper
CONTENTS
Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN Prefatory Note Introduction
1
3
Part I: Labour Demand and Supply Gebhard FLAIG Demand Uncertainty and Labour Input in a Bivariate ARCH-M Model
9
Friedheim PFEIFFER and Winfried POHLMEIER Income, Uncertainty and the Probability of Self-Employment
23
Lucie MERKLE and Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN The Demographics of Labour Turnover: A Comparison of Ordinal Probit and Censored Count Data Models
41
Part II: Productivity Slowdown and Innovative Activity Klaus CONRAD and Helmut SEITZ The "Public Capital Hypothesis": The Case of Germany LAISNEY, Michael LECHNER and Winfried POHLMEIER Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Binary Choice Models Using Panel Data: An Application to the Innovative Activity of German Firms
67
Fran~ois
87
Part III: Disequilibrium and Business Cycle Analysis Wolfgang FRANZ and Gustav HEIDBRINK The Importance of Rationing in International Trade: An Econometric Analysis for Germany
105
Horst ENTORF Overtime Work, Lack of Labour, and Structural Mismatch: Some Extensions of the "European Unemployment Programme" Framework
131
Juergen KAHLER and Volker MARNET International Business Cycles and Long-Run Gr
