Projecting Population Change by Age and Birth Parity: the Third Generation of Population Projections
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Projecting Population Change by Age and Birth Parity: the Third Generation of Population Projections Nan Li 1 Received: 7 March 2019 / Accepted: 10 February 2020/ # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Early population projections described future changes in total population and could foresee unsustainable population growth. Age-specific population projections could identify trends in population ageing and demographic dividends, and they have been widely used in recent decades owing to the efforts of collecting and estimating demographic data by age. In recent years, data are becoming available to allow for population projections by age and birth parity, which could help understanding future changes in family structures. To take advantage of the opportunity created by these increasingly accessible data, this paper extends the cohort component method to project populations by age and birth parity and provides an application for Canada. Résumé Les premières projections démographiques décrivaient les changements futurs de la population totale et pouvaient prévoir une croissance démographique non soutenable. Les projections démographiques par âge pourraient indiquer les tendances du vieillissement de la population et des dividendes démographiques, et elles ont été largement utilisées au cours des dernières décennies grâce aux efforts de collecte et d'estimation des données démographiques par âge. Ces dernières années, les données sur la fécondité par rang de naissance sont devenues de plus en plus disponibles, ce qui permet d’effectuer des projections démographiques par âge et rang de naissance. Ce type de projections pourrait aider à décrire les changements futurs dans les structures familiales. Pour profiter de l’opportunité créée par ces données de plus en plus accessibles, cet article étend la méthode des composantes pour projeter les populations par âge et rang de naissance. Nous proposons ainsi une application de cette méthode pour le Canada. Keywords Population projection . Family structure . Birth parity Views expressed in this paper are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations
* Nan Li [email protected]
1
United Nations Population Division, DC2-1938, New York, NY 10017, USA
Canadian Studies in Population
1 Introduction There are two main types of population projections. Projections of the total population produce estimates of population size through the balance equation of population change, projected crude birth rates, crude death rates, and total migration (see Preston et al. 2001; p2). Age-specific population projections produce estimates of population by age using the cohort component method (Whelpton 1936; Leslie 1945). Malthus’ population model (1798, see Pollard 1973; p.22), which assumes constant vital rates, is the first example of projections of the total population. Almost two centuries later, a practically important application of this model was ‘The Past and Future Growth of World Population—A Long-Range View’. This was the first world population pr
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