Relating urban development and densification to temporary changes in the air temperature in Warsaw (Poland)
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Relating urban development and densification to temporary changes in the air temperature in Warsaw (Poland) Tomasz Rozbicki 1 & Małgorzata Kleniewska 2 & Katarzyna Rozbicka 1 & Grzegorz Majewski 1 & Dariusz Gołaszewski 1 Received: 20 January 2016 / Accepted: 3 July 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract The assessment of the influence of urbanisation effects on air temperature trends has been widely discussed in the literature. Urbanisation affects the urban active surface energy balance, resulting in the formation of urban heat island, also observed in the Warsaw conurbation. This article presents the diversity of long-term changes in air temperature at three Warsaw meteorological stations situated in the districts of Ursynów, Okęcie and Bielany, and demonstrates changes in thermal conditions during a longterm urbanisation process. Ursynów is the station where the changes of the surrounding area were most significant among the three analysed ones and the rise in the air temperature for this station was the greatest and it was observed from 7.5 °C in the years 1961–1970 to 8.5 °C in the years 2001–2010. The diversity of air temperature between the stations depends on their location. All of them are situated within the conurbation, at some distance from the city centre but the nature of their surroundings is different. The diversity applies to all annual characteristics of air temperature: its mean, mean maximum and mean minimum values.
1 Introduction Roughly half of the world’s population lives in cities, and this share is increasing over time, projected to reach 60% by 2030. Moreover, most of the growth in urban populations will occur in developing countries, where the growth rate is estimated at approximately twice the rate for developed countries within the 2005–2030 time frame (OECD 2008 after Hallegatte and
* Tomasz Rozbicki [email protected] Małgorzata Kleniewska [email protected] Katarzyna Rozbicka [email protected] Grzegorz Majewski [email protected] Dariusz Gołaszewski [email protected] 1
Department of Hydrology, Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
2
Department of Remote Sensing and Environmental Assessment, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
Corfee-Morlot 2011). Considering this and the fact that the expansion of urban space directly triggers changes in the properties of the ground-level atmospheric layer, both over the urban area and beyond its limits, more and more attention is drawn to the observation and analysis of urban climates (Grimmond 2006). The urbanisation-induced warming in local or regional temperature observations could be substantial. Some authors (Hansen and Lebedeff 1987; Karl and Jones 1989; Jones et al. 1990) suggested urban influence on the regional mean temperature series in the USA between 0.1 and 0.4 °C; Peterson (2003) found no significant changes in the regional mean temp
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