Risk Prediction of the Diabetes Missing Million: Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Diabetes and Related Complicati
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REVIEW
Risk Prediction of the Diabetes Missing Million: Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Diabetes and Related Complications Marc Evans . Angharad R. Morgan . Dipesh Patel . Ketan Dhatariya . Sharlene Greenwood . Philip Newland-Jones . Debbie Hicks . Zaheer Yousef . Jim Moore . Bethany Kelly . Sarah Davies . Umesh Dashora Received: October 14, 2020 / Accepted: October 28, 2020 Ó The Author(s) 2020
ABSTRACT Early diagnosis and effective management of type 2 diabetes (T2D) are crucial in reducing the risk of developing life-changing complications such as heart failure, stroke, kidney disease, blindness and amputation, which are also associated with significant costs for healthcare providers. However, as T2D symptoms often develop slowly it is not uncommon for people
M. Evans (&) Diabetes Resource Centre, University Hospital Llandough, Cardiff, UK e-mail: [email protected] A. R. Morgan Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, UK D. Patel Department of Diabetes, Division of Medicine, University College London, Royal Free NHS Trust, London, UK K. Dhatariya Elsie Bertram Diabetes Centre, Norfolk and Norwich University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Norwich, UK S. Greenwood Renal Medicine, King’s College Hospital, London, UK S. Greenwood Renal Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King’s College London, London, UK
to live with T2D for years without being aware of their condition—commonly known as the undiagnosed missing million. By the time a diagnosis is received, many individuals will have already developed serious complications. While the existence of undiagnosed diabetes has long been recognised, wide-reaching awareness among the general public, clinicians and policymakers is lacking, and there is uncertainty in how best to identify high-risk individuals. In this article we have used consensus expert opinion alongside the available P. Newland-Jones University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK D. Hicks Medicus Health Partners, Enfield, London, UK Z. Yousef Wales Heart Research Institute, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK J. Moore Stoke Road Surgery, Bishop’s Cleeve, Cheltenham, UK B. Kelly Solent NHS Trust, Southampton, UK S. Davies Woodlands Medical Centre, Cardiff, UK U. Dashora East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust, St Leonards-onSea, UK
Diabetes Ther
evidence, to provide support for the diabetes healthcare community regarding risk prediction of the missing million. Its purpose is to provide awareness of the risk factors for identifying individuals at high, moderate and low risk of T2D and T2D-related complications. The awareness of risk predictors, particularly in primary care, is important, so that appropriate steps can be taken to reduce the clinical and economic burden of T2D and its complications.
DIGITAL FEATURES
Keywords: Chronic kidney disease; Diabetesrelated complications; Heart failure; Risk prediction; Type 2 diabetes
Globally, it is estimated that just under a half a billion people are living with diabetes, which is approximately 1 in 11
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