Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering
In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and al
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Applied Optimization Volume 93 Series Editors:
Panos M. Pardalos University of Florida, U.S.A. Donald W. Hearn University of Florida, U.S.A.
Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering
E.D. Solojentsev Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
a - springer
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from t h e Library of Congress.
ISBN 1-4020-2977-2
e-ISBN 1-4020-2978-0
Printed on acid-free paper.
O 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now know or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks and similar terms, even if the are not identified as suck is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights.
Printed in the United States of America. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
SPIN 11161448
AUTHOR SOLOJENTSEV Evgueni Dmitrievich was born in 1939. He is Head of "Intelligent Integrated Automatized Design Systems Laboratory" of Institute of Problems in Mechanical Engineering, Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. of Tech. Sci., Professor of St.Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation, Honored worker of Science of Russian Federation. E. D. Solojentsev graduated Kharkov polytechnic institute in 1960, defended the candidate dissertation in 1967 (Central research diesel engine iiistitute, St.Petersburg) and the doctoral dissertation in 1983 (Institute of Cybernetics of AS, Kiev). From 1967 t o 1985 worked as Head of departinent of Automated System Management in industry (Gorkiy, Sumi). E.D. Solojentsev is the expert in the area of management of risk at stages of design, test and operation in complex systems. E.D. Solojentsev is the author about 150 scientific papers including 5 books. He is the founder of scientific bases of construction the automated debugging test systems. He developed the logic and probabilistic risk theory with groups of incompatible events for problems of classification, investment and effectiveness. E.D. Solojentsev is the Chairman of National Organizing Committee of International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" (St.Petersburg, IPMash RAN, 2001, 2002, 2003).
E. D. Solojentsev. Scenario logic and probabilistic management - 391 p., Figures 70; Tilhles - - 40; Refers - 118. of risk in business and engineering. Pages
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The methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered, following from analysis of connections between management and risk, pe
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