Simulation-Based Population Dynamics Analysis: Korean Population Aging
Many countries have experienced demographic problems. Population aging in Korea is, for example, considered as the representative and severe one. To analyze such population changes, this paper applied modeling and simulation method from the micro-level pe
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Abstract. Many countries have experienced demographic problems. Population aging in Korea is, for example, considered as the representative and severe one. To analyze such population changes, this paper applied modeling and simulation method from the micro-level perspective. Specifically, this paper introduce Korean population dynamics model, and this model was designed with micro population data and population statistics in Korea. Using the developed model, we performed virtual experiments to estimate future population dynamics. Through the result analyses, this paper presents how the future Korean population would move and suggests socio-economic factors that are related with the progress of Korean population aging. Keywords: Simulation-based analysis · Population Demographic analysis · Korean population aging
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Introduction
As social and economic advances in modern times, many countries recently have experienced various demographic problems. One representative problem is population aging. Population aging is a shift in the distribution of a country’s population towards older ages due to increasing life expectancy and decreasing fertility rate. This population problem has been widely spread in and Europe regions, and it would affect the form of work, families, health, education, and technology of the world’s population [1]. In particular, population aging in Korea has been rapidly progressed: Korea became an aged society (over 65 years population takes 7 % of the overall population) in 2000 and is predicted to become an aging and a super-aging society (over 65 years population takes 14 % and 20 % of the overall population) before 2020 and 2030. Moreover, the period of transferring aging to super-aging society in Korea is estimated as 23 years, which is even faster than other advanced countries (e.g., France, and Sweden took 115 and 85 years). To alleviate Korean population aging, Korean government established economic and welfare policies, yet their effectiveness has been hardly seen. To tackle population problems, many demographic researchers have been studied about population dynamics. Population dynamics helps to see the future c Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2016 L. Zhang et al. (Eds.): AsiaSim 2016/SCS AutumnSim 2016, Part IV, CCIS 646, pp. 358–367, 2016. DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-2672-0 37
Simulation-Based Population Dynamics Analysis: Korean Population Aging
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population and establish political strategies for dealing with future population problems [2]. One approach for the population dynamics analysis is modeling and simulation. In particular, micro-level modeling and simulation provides individual features about how population structures were developed and how they would be evolved in the future. It also means that the micro-level modeling and simulation could also deliver key information for mitigating the population aging problem. This paper introduces Korean population dynamics model, and the developed model describes behaviors and interactions of individuals in Korean popu
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