Trends, Determinants and the Implications of Population Aging in Iran
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Trends, Determinants and the Implications of Population Aging in Iran Nader Mehri 1
& Mahmood
Messkoub 2 & Suzanne Kunkel 3
# Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran’s population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31% (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22% (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8% (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times higher than the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01%. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic supports for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden. Keywords Iran . Population aging . Fertility change . The speed of the population aging
* Nader Mehri [email protected] Mahmood Messkoub [email protected] Suzanne Kunkel [email protected]
1
Department of Sociology & Gerontology, Miami University, Oxford, OH, USA
2
International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University (ISS), Hague, Netherlands
3
Scripps Gerontology Center and Department of Sociology & Gerontology, Miami University, Oxford, OH, USA
Ageing Int
Introduction and Background Iran’s 79 million people in 2015 made it the 17th most populous country in the globe. Based on the medium fertility variant, its population size is projected to be around 92 million in 2050 but will decline to 70 million in 21001; even with the decline projected for the next century, Iran is still among countries with large populations, ranking 19th and 26th in the world in 2050 and 2100, respectively (UN, DESA 2015a, c). In addition, despite the fact that Iran’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has been below the replacement level fertility rate (TFR < 2.1) since 2000 (UN, DESA 2015b), Iran’s natural growth rate is expected to remain positive through 2050 due to the population momentum of an increasing number of women in child-bearing ages, a consequence of earlier episodes of high fertility. Due to very rapid demographic changes in the past, especially a signific
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