Two futures: EU-Russia relations in the context of Ukraine.
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Two futures: EU-Russia relations in the context of Ukraine. Samuel R. Schubert & Johannes Pollak & Elina Brutschin
Received: 31 October 2014 / Accepted: 25 November 2014 / Published online: 11 December 2014 # The Author(s) 2014. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Abstract The enduring crisis in Ukraine presents the European Union (EU) with a conundrum. Should it strengthen its economic and energy ties despite Russia’s growing assertiveness in the hope to solidify its medium term energy security and reel in Russian foreign policy? Or should it rather continue to tighten the screws on the Putin regime, in the hope that doing so will concurrently compel the Russian Federation to moderate its behaviour? This paper argues that it is not prudent for the EU to decrease cooperation with Russia in the short term, but rather push for a political solution without additional sanctions and in the long-term secure different fossil resources such as LNG and different suppliers such as Iraq and Iran. Whichever way the EU chooses, Ukraine’s role in EU energy security is depreciating. Nevertheless, the EU possesses a stronger bargaining position than widely believed because Russia lacks a credible alternative to European foreign direct investments (FDI). The EU should (1) establish an energy union that includes gas storage and distribution plans and extends the Energy Community to include Turkey to pave the way for future gas flows; (2) support infrastructure projects that increase reverse flow capacities within the EU as well as South Stream or its heirs and the Southern Corridor via This article is part of the Topical Collection on The Future of Europe, guest-edited by Markus Pausch. S. R. Schubert (*) : E. Brutschin Department of International Relations, Webster University Vienna, Praterstrasse 23, A-1020 Vienna, Austria e-mail: [email protected] E. Brutschin e-mail: [email protected] J. Pollak Department of Political Science, Institut für Höhere Studien Institute for Advanced Studies, Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna, Austria e-mail: [email protected]
Turkey to enhance import capacity; and (3) massively invest into energy research. Keywords Ukraine . Russia . Energy union . South stream The enduring crisis in Ukraine presents the European Union (EU) with a conundrum about the future of EU-Russian relations, a choice of preference about two very different futures. Should it move to strengthen its economic and particularly its energy ties to Russia despite its growing assertiveness in Ukraine and its near abroad in the hope that doing so will strengthen its medium term energy security and reel in Russian foreign policy? Or should it rather tighten the screws on the Putin regime, as it is currently doing, in hopes that this will concurrently compel the Russian Federation to moderate its increasingly assertive foreign policy and anchor Ukraine tightly into the Western fold? The choice is not necessarily an easy one. Europe is divided on the importance of Russia’s rol
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