Quantifying the impacts of land use/land cover change on the water balance in the afforested River Basin, Pakistan
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Quantifying the impacts of land use/land cover change on the water balance in the afforested River Basin, Pakistan Naeem Saddique1,2 · Talha Mahmood3 · Christian Bernhofer1 Received: 25 February 2020 / Accepted: 12 September 2020 / Published online: 23 September 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one of the key driving elements responsible for altering the hydrology of a watershed. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal LULC changes between 2001 and 2018 and their impacts on the water balance of the Jhelum River Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to analyze the impacts on water yield (WY) and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was calibrated and validated with discharge data between 1995 and 2005 and then simulated with different land use. The increase was observed in forest, settlement and water areas during the study period. At the catchment scale, we found that afforestation has reduced the WY and surface runoff, while enhanced the ET. Moreover, this change was more pronounced at the sub-basin scale. Some sub-basins, especially in the northern part of the study area, exhibited an increase in WY due to an increase in the snow cover area. Similarly, extremes land use scenarios also showed significant impact on water balance components. The basin WY has decreased by 38 mm/ year and ET has increased about 36 mm/year. The findings of this study could guide the watershed manager in the development of sustainable LULC planning and water resources management. Keywords Hydrology · Water yield · Evapotranspiration · SWAT · Afforestation · LULC changes
Introduction Land use and land cover (LULC) changes altering hydrological processes and have the potential to exert a large influence on earth water (Wagner et al. 2013; Kaushal et al. 2017). Rapid socio-economic development causes LULC changes that include changes of land cover classes, for example, conversion of agriculture or forest to industrialization and residential area due to population growth, in addition alteration within classes such as a change of crop rotations or crops (Wagner et al. 2013). Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key driver of hydrological processes such as surface runoff, ET and base flow (Zhao et al. 2013 and Garg et al. 2017). Juang et al. (2007) reported that the changes in * Naeem Saddique Naeem.saddique@tu‑dresden.de 1
Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology Technische Universität Dresden, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
2
Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
3
Department of Geography and Geology, Martin Luther Universität, 06120 Halle, Germany
LULC have significant effects on atmospheric elements like precipitation and temperature, key driving elements of the hydrological cycle. Thus, it changes the water balance of a watershed that comprises stream flow, base flow and evapotranspiration (DeFries and Eshleman 2004; Shooshtari et al. 2017). Therefore, examining the practices
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