Modeling land use change impacts on a tropical river basin in Brazil
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Modeling land use change impacts on a tropical river basin in Brazil L. F. de Sousa1 · C. A. S. Santos2 · R. L. Gomes1 · F. A. Rocha2 · R. M. de Jesus1,3 Received: 26 April 2020 / Revised: 17 October 2020 / Accepted: 31 October 2020 © Islamic Azad University (IAU) 2020
Abstract Water scarcity has affected the Atlantic Forest and other biomes in Brazil. To address this situation, the Brazilian Forest Code was created to control deforestation and promote sustainable development. However, how effective is this code for water production? After the cacao crises in 1980s, the Cachoeira River Basin has suffered from changes in water disponibility. Within this framework, the objective of this paper was to evaluate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for modeling the flow behavior of the Cachoeira River Basin between 1985 and 2005 using manual calibration process under two alternative scenarios in order to obtain information that supports the guidelines regarding the future water resources management plans in the basin. Split sample test and differential split sample test were applied for calibration/validation process, and flow duration curve performance was used as a complementary procedure to attest the model. The scenario assessment results revealed that both scenarios proposed by the study did not affect significantly the hydrological services in the basin, suggesting that the land use changes that happened after the cacao crisis in the late 1980s did not affect substantially the water services in the Cachoeira River Basin. Keywords Flow duration curve · Management plan · Hierarchical calibration · Brazilian Forest Code
Introduction Changes in land use are among the main factors that alter hydrological processes and thus influence flow regimes, aquifer recharge and water storage in watershed soils worldwide (de Medeiros et al. 2019; Poorheydar et al. 2020). The understanding of these processes along with the alterations in water components (e.g., surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater flow, water yield and evapotranspiration) is Editorial responsibility: S. R. Sabbagh-Yazdi. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-02997-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * R. M. de Jesus [email protected] 1
Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (UESC), Rodovia Jorge Amado, km 16, Bairro Salobrinho, Ilhéus, Bahia 45662‑900, Brasil
2
Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia da Bahia (IFBA), Av. Sérgio Vieira de Mello, 3150 ‑ Zabelê, Vitória da Conquista‑Bahia, Brasil
3
INCT de Energia E Ambiente, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia 40170‑280, Brazil
essential to comprehend the causes of water scarcity impact and ensure the integrated management of water resources. Water scarcity has affected several biomes worldwide, including the Atlantic Forest in Brazil. This biome is one of the most endangered forests in the country and it has faced many water problems due to deforestation,
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