Reliability and Life-Cycle Analysis of Deteriorating Systems
This book compiles and critically discusses modern engineering system degradation models and their impact on engineering decisions. In particular, the authors focus on modeling the uncertain nature of degradation considering both conceptual discussions an
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Mauricio Sánchez-Silva Georgia-Ann Klutke
Reliability and Life-Cycle Analysis of Deteriorating Systems
Springer Series in Reliability Engineering Series editor Hoang Pham, Piscataway, USA
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6917
Mauricio Sánchez-Silva Georgia-Ann Klutke •
Reliability and Life-Cycle Analysis of Deteriorating Systems
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Mauricio Sánchez-Silva Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Universidad de Los Andes Bogotá Colombia
Georgia-Ann Klutke Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Texas A&M University College Station, TX USA
ISSN 1614-7839 ISSN 2196-999X (electronic) Springer Series in Reliability Engineering ISBN 978-3-319-20945-6 ISBN 978-3-319-20946-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-20946-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015950899 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
To Silvia, Cami and Ale Mauricio
To John and Alan … my lights Georgia-Ann
Preface
The concepts behind the design and operation of engineered systems have evolved significantly over the last decades. Engineering design has historically been conceived as an optimization problem consisting of selecting the physical characteristics of a system1 that satisfy predefined functional requirements at minimum cost. The cost-based optimization approach, fundamentally deterministic in nature, has at the same time recognized that the performance of the system is uncertain and potentially hazardous. During the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century, safety factors where used implicitly or explicitly to cover design, construction, and operational uncertainties. For example, [1] reports that in the nineteenth century in the UK the average ultimate tensile strength for cas
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