Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes Mo

Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes offers a comprehensive approach to the analysis, identification, evaluation, prediction and optimization of complex technical systems operation, reliability and safety. Its main emphasis is

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Krzysztof Kołowrocki Joanna Soszyn´ska-Budny •

Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes Modeling—Identification—Prediction— Optimization

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Krzysztof Kołowrocki Maritime University ul. Morska 81-87 81-225 Gdynia Poland e-mail: [email protected]

ISSN 1614-7839 ISBN 978-0-85729-693-1 DOI 10.1007/978-0-85729-694-8

Joanna Soszyn´ska-Budny Maritime University ul. Morska 81-87 81-225 Gdynia Poland e-mail: [email protected]

e-ISBN 978-0-85729-694-8

Springer London Dordrecht Heidelberg New York British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licenses issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. The use of registered names, trademarks, etc., in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. Cover design: eStudio Calamar, Berlin/Figueres Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

Preface

This book is concerned with the identification, evaluation, prediction and optimization of operation, reliability, availability and safety of technical systems related to their operation processes. The main emphasis is on multi-state systems composed of ageing components and changing their structures and their component’s reliability and safety characteristics during the operation processes. In this book these systems are called the complex technical systems. The practical importance of such an approach in reliability and safety identification, assessment and prediction, and analyzing the effectiveness of operation processes of real technical systems is evident. Most real technical systems are very complex and it is difficult to analyze their reliability, availability and safety. Large numbers of components and subsystems and their operating complexity cause the identification, evaluation, prediction and optimization of their reliability, availability and safety to be complicated. The complexity of the systems’ operation processes and their influence on changing in time the systems’ structures and their components’ reliability characteristics are very often m