Slackwater Sediments Record the Increase in Sub-daily Rain Flood due to Climate Change in a European Mediterranean Catch
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Slackwater Sediments Record the Increase in Sub-daily Rain Flood due to Climate Change in a European Mediterranean Catchment J. D. Moral-Erencia1 · P. Bohorquez1
2 ´ · P. J. Jimenez-Ruiz2 · F. J. Perez-Latorre
Received: 26 November 2019 / Accepted: 10 May 2020 / © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract In this work we propose an original method to determine the magnitude of the discharge, the intensity of the precipitation and the duration of short-rain floods in small torrential basins (< 2000 km2 ), extending our earlier approach for long-rain floods in larger basins (Water 2016, 8, 526; Remote Sens. 2017, 9, 727). The studied areas are located in ungauged catchments with high erosion rates where torrents deposit slackwater sediments near the outlet of the basins. Such deposits and erosive morphologies allow us to analyse sub-daily extreme hydrological events by combining standard techniques in paleohydrology, the kinematic wave method and remote-sensed paleostage indicators. The formulation was correctly verified in extreme events through reliable gauge measurements and a high-resolution distributed hydrological model showing the accuracy of our calculations (10% ≤ relative error ≤ 22%). In catchments of the European Mediterranean region where the frequency and magnitude of short-rain floods are increasing (e.g. the Guadalquivir Basin), the main hydrological variables can thus be quantified post-event using the proposed approach. The outputs may serve to construct a new database for this kind of events complementary to the existing daily database for long-rain floods (> 24 h). The need is evident for safety designs of civil infrastructures and flood risk mitigation strategies in the current climate change scenario. Keywords Short-rain flood · Satellite imagery · Flood monitoring · Paleohydrology · Climate change · Guadalquivir basin
P. Bohorquez
[email protected] 1
2
Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias de la Tierra (CEACTierra), Universidad de Ja´en, Campus de las Lagunillas, 23071 Ja´en, Spain ´ Area de Mec´anica de Fluidos, Dpto Ingenier´ıa Mec´anica y Minera, Universidad de Ja´en, Campus Cient´ıfico Tecnol´ogico de Linares, 23700 Linares, Spain
J.D. Moral-Erencia et al.
1 Introduction The study of inundation events with a duration lower than 1-day, referred to as shortrain flood in Merz and Bl¨oschl (2003), is acquiring relevancy in the actual climate change scenario (Bellos and Tsakiris 2016; Garc´ıa-Feal et al. 2018; Bellos et al. 2020). The climate predictions establish a reduction of the total amount of precipitation with a higher spatial concentration (IPCC 2013), especially in the Mediterranean area of Europe (EEA 2017). We expect an increase in the frequency and magnitude of sub-daily flood events (Alfieri and Thielen 2015), human and direct-indirect economic losses (Dottori et al. 2018). Actual predictions were confirmed during the 2009-2011 period that exhibited a remarkable record of sub-daily floods in European Mediterranean basins (Fig. 1a). Furthermore, a European Flood Awa
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