Statistical Precursor of Induced Seismicity Using Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Seismic Sequence in Mines
Induced seismicity associated with mining is becoming an increasingly important issue worldwide, and it poses a hazard to the exposed population and structures. In this work, the seismic sequence is analyzed with the aim of detecting changes in statistica
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Abstract Induced seismicity associated with mining is becoming an increasingly important issue worldwide, and it poses a hazard to the exposed population and structures. In this work, the seismic sequence is analyzed with the aim of detecting changes in statistical parameters describing the seismic event occurrence before the main shocks, to be used for monitoring the sequence evolution. Temporal and spatial characteristics of seismic sequence before the large magnitude seismic events (MW > 1) in mines are used to investigate the precursor of large magnitude. The statistical results of 25 from 27 large magnitude seismic events implicate the following characteristics of precursor seismicity before the occurrence of the large magnitude seismic event of the sequence: Cumulative Benioff strain increases continuously. The Hurst exponent for the foreshocks is greater than 0.5. There is initially an increase in b value then a decrease. Three cases related to the statistical precursor are presented and discussed in the paper. The observed temporal and spatial variations of three selected indexes including b value, Hurst exponent, and cumulative Benioff strain support the hypothesis that three indexes have significant potential of statistical precursor. Keywords Statistical precursor · Seismic sequence · b value · Hurst exponent · Benioff strain
1 Introduction With the mining depth increasing year by year, dangerous disasters like rockbursts and a wide range of collapses induced by high stress not only threaten the safety production of mines seriously but also cause huge economic losses and casualties to mines in many countries with the characteristics of large magnitude, strong destructiveness, and wide areas [1–8]. L. Dong (*) · D. Sun · W. Shu · X. Li · L. Zhang School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 G. Shen et al. (eds.), Advances in Acoustic Emission Technology, Springer Proceedings in Physics 218, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12111-2_38
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As one of the most effective means in monitoring and early warning of underground disasters, the microseismic monitoring has been applied in numerous mines in Canada, Australia, South Africa, Poland, and China [9, 10]. By using an automatic multichannel monitoring system to detect the arrival times of seismic waves in a hard rock nickel mine in Sudbury, Canada, Young et al. [11] proved the feasibility of using microseismic monitoring system for mechanism studies and speculated that the shear failure is the predominant mechanism of failure at the source for low-magnitude mining-induced microseismic events. In 1989, microseismic monitoring systems were installed in several Canadian mines to capture complete waveforms and investigate seismic source parameters including first motion, peak particle velocity, seismic energy, and spectral frequency [12]. Through the application of the pure seismological inversions, the point source moment tensor is ob
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