The attractiveness of seaport-based transport corridors: an integrated approach based on scenario planning and gravity m
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The attractiveness of seaport‑based transport corridors: an integrated approach based on scenario planning and gravity models Abdolrasoul Ghasemi1 · Elnaz Miandoabchi2 · Shiva Soroushnia3 Accepted: 12 October 2020 © Springer Nature Limited 2020
Abstract This paper proposes an innovative foresight methodology to estimate the future port transit throughput volumes in Iran using scenario planning, econometrics, and heuristics calculations. Two critical components of the framework are the gravity models, for estimating potential international trade flows that can pass the ports as transit freight, and the novel approach for calculating the attractiveness of transport corridors. The global business network approach is applied to determine several scenarios using three major driving forces, reflecting the future domestic and international environment affecting Iranian ports transit. For each scenario, a systematic approach is used to quantify the effects of driving forces and obtain port transit throughput for different goods categories. In doing so, the estimated trade flows are assigned to the corridors with the highest attractiveness scores. Major transport corridors such as International North–South Transport Corridor, Belt and Road Initiative, Suez Canal route, TRACECA, Trans Asian Railway, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), and Trans-Siberian corridor are taken into account in the assessments. The proposed methodology is not country specific, therefore it could provide valuable insights to port authorities to help cope with uncertainties within the international trade and logistics environment when conducting strategic planning. Keywords Transit freight · Port throughput · International trade · Gravity models · Scenario planning · Iran · Transport corridors · Logistics performance index
* Abdolrasoul Ghasemi [email protected] 1
Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
2
Domestic Commerce Research Group, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, Tehran, Iran
3
Independent Economic Research Analyst, Tehran, Iran
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1 Introduction Ports play a vital role in international trade as they are the major gateways into countries for trade. They are also part of transportation networks across the world, and more than 80% of global trade movements, in terms of volume, pass through seaports (UNCTAD 2017). Normally, ports serve the import and export trade requirements of their corresponding countries. However, in countries with advantageous geographical locations and good connectivity to international transport networks, ports can also act as key land–sea transit gateways. Indeed, the emergence of such countries as regional or global logistics and freight transit hubs, and their success in this role, relies highly on devising proper policies and plans for the development of ports and other components of the logistics sector. Ports, as organized logistics platforms, act as an interface between produc
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