The emerging ideological security dilemma between China and the U.S.
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The emerging ideological security dilemma between China and the U.S. Dalei Jie1 Received: 2 October 2020 / Accepted: 3 November 2020 © The Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University 2020
Abstract Historically, the impact of different ideologies on U.S.-China relations is determined by whether there is a strong strategic rationale for a positive relationship and whether China’s internal development is in line with the U.S. expectations. During the Trump era, U.S–China relations have become definitively more competitive, and the U.S. is disillusioned with China’s internal development. Consequently, the ideological factor becomes more pronounced in the bilateral relationship, and a certain degree of ideological competition may be inevitable. But this is and will likely remain limited in scope and intensity because neither side is bent on an ideological crusade or a Cold War-style ideological conflict. The current situation may best be characterized as a “security dilemma” in the ideological domain. It does not have to lead to the worst possible outcome that neither desires, but preventing such an outcome requires better understanding of each other’s intentions, increased appreciation for the impact of one’s own actions on the other’s insecurity, refraining from utilizing ideology for domestic mobilization, and prioritizing putting one’s own house in order. Keywords China · The U.S. · Ideology · Security dilemma
This essay is adapted and updated from a longer article published in Chinese in the Quarterly Journal of International Politics. See Jie (2020). * Dalei Jie [email protected] 1
School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China
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China International Strategy Review
1 Introduction The idea that U.S.-China relations have entered a new era of strategic competition has taken hold in both Washington and Beijing. Officially, the Chinese government still strives for “coordination, cooperation, and stability” in its relationship with the U.S. and has not adopted the term “strategic competition,” but in practice it must brace for this undesirable scenario (Xinhua 2020).1 But what is the exact nature of the strategic competition? What are the stakes? What end-game scenarios are being envisioned? That these extremely important questions cannot be answered with much certainty has to do with the controversial role of ideology in U.S.-China competition. Simply put, factoring ideology into an increasingly competitive economic and security relationship is likely to create a high-stakes, win-or-lose replay of the Cold War. If the U.S. and China can minimize the negative influence of ideology, then we can hope to witness a less intense, less comprehensive, and less dangerous competition. There are two opposing views on the role of ideology. One view, shared by many Chinese and U.S. observers, is that ideology is either insignificant in U.S–China competition, or the two sides should try their best to avoid an unnecessary rivalry in the ideological
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