Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds
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Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds Makenzie J. Krocak1,2,3,4 · Sean Ernst1,2 · Jinan N. Allan1,2 · Wesley Wehde1,2 · Joseph T. Ripberger1,2 · Carol L. Silva1,2 · Hank C. Jenkins‑Smith1,2 Received: 23 July 2019 / Accepted: 23 April 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service. Keywords Tornado warnings · Risk analysis · Information reception · False alarm effect
* Makenzie J. Krocak [email protected] 1
Center for Risk and Crisis Management, University of Oklahoma, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, USA
2
National Institute for Risk and Resilience, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, USA
3
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2100, Norman, OK 73072, USA
4
NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072, USA
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction A key component of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) is to provide weather forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property (NWS 2019). Of these NWS products, tornado warnings are particularly well known in areas east of the Continental Divide, as tornadoes can cause widespread injuries and fatalities and result in billions of dollars in damages (NCDC 2019). This threat to life and property necessitates accurate and timely warnings. How
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