Assessing the impacts of historical and future land use and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield of a tro
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Assessing the impacts of historical and future land use and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield of a tropical mountainous river basin in South India Rakesh Kumar Sinha & T. I. Eldho
&
Ghosh Subimal
Received: 21 July 2019 / Accepted: 17 September 2020 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract In this study, the impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield were investigated for the Payaswani River Basin, Western Ghats, India. The LULC was determined using Landsat images, and climate data were procured from five general circulation models for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission). The land change modeler was used to derive the future LULC and its changes from 1988 (historical) to 2030 (future) by using the transition matrix method. The SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of LULC and climate change for the streamflow and sediment yield. The results showed that decrease in forests and grasslands and increase in plantation, agricultural, and urban areas from 1988 to 2030 would lead to an increase in the mean streamflow (11.23%) and sediment yield (17.41%). Under RCP 4.5, climate change would decrease the streamflow by 2.38% in 2030. However, under RCP 8.5, climate change would increase the streamflow by 0.12% in 2030. The sediment yield under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 would increase by 1.23% and 3.33%, respectively. In comparison with the baseline condition, by 2030 future R. K. Sinha : T. I. Eldho : G. Subimal IDP in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400076, India T. I. Eldho (*) : G. Subimal Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400076, India e-mail: [email protected]
changes in the LULC and climate would increase the streamflow by 7.05% and 11.71% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The sediment yield would increase by 7.92% and 27.11% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The streamflow and sediment yield were predicted to increase in the summer and winter but decrease in the monsoon season. Keywords Remote sensing . SWAT modeling . LULC . Climate change . Streamflow . Sediment yield
Introduction Almost all regions in the world have faced a net adverse impact on water resources due to changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) and climate in the last few decades, and this impact is expected to have more adverse effects in the future (IPCC 2013). However, the intensity and appearances of the impacts can considerably vary from one area to another. Human demand for water has increased because of socio-economic development, which has caused an imbalance in the demand and supply of water (Zuo et al. 2016). Tropical forests play a key role in maintaining the global water balance. Humid tropics currently cover approximately 25% of the Earth’s land surface, with tropical forests occupying approximately half of this area (Ogden et al. 2013). The high rate of deforestation and alteration in agricultural landscapes inc
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