Advances in Earthquake Prediction Research and Risk Mitigation
The special natural conditions in Iceland as well as high level technology, were the basis for multidisciplinary and multinational cooperation for studying crustal processes, especially processes ahead of large earthquakes. This work leads to new innovati
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Ragnar Stefa´nsson
Advances in Earthquake Prediction Research and Risk Mitigation
Published in association with
Praxis Publishing Chichester, UK
Professor Ragnar Stefa´nsson University of Akureyri Akureyri Iceland
SPRINGER–PRAXIS BOOKS IN GEOPHYSICAL SCIENCES SUBJECT ADVISORY EDITOR: Philippe Blondel, C.Geol., F.G.S., Ph.D., M.Sc., F.I.O.A., Senior Scientist, Department of Physics, University of Bath, Bath, UK
ISBN 978-3-540-47569-9 e-ISBN 978-3-540-47571-2 DOI 10.1007/978-3-540-47571-2 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2011930134 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: Jim Wilkie Project management: OPS Ltd, Gt Yarmouth, Norfolk, UK Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science þ Business Media (www.springer.com)
Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xi
Roadmap and acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xv
List of figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xix
List of abbreviations and acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xxiii
About the author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xxv
Introduction: Background to the work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 The dream to be realized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Optimism and pessimism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 The Chinese success in 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2 Optimism and a setback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.3 Chinese seismologists were alert to the possibility of a Tangshan earthquake early in 1976. 1.2.4 Predictions that fail to occur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Earthquake hazard assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Predictions ‘‘not in the mode’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 New multinational prediction research project in Iceland, started 1988 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.A Appendix . . . . . .
