Comparative PGA-driven probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Turkey with a Bayesian perspective
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Comparative PGA-driven probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Turkey with a Bayesian perspective Murat Nas & Alexey Lyubushin & Mustafa Softa & Yusuf Bayrak
Received: 5 September 2019 / Accepted: 26 June 2020 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract While there has been significant research on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using several different seismic sources, this paper focuses particularly on understanding the spatially varying seismic hazard controlled only by earthquakes. In that vein, regarding Turkish seismicity, this study is the first of its kind to explore this conundrum from a Bayesian point of view and offer new estimates to compare with the existing ones. In this study, a national-extent peak ground acceleration (PGA)–driven hazard map (upon 90% quantile of maxima, VS30 = 760 m/s, and a return period of 475 years) was created and then compared both with the old and new versions of the officially recognized seismic hazard maps of Turkey. Regarding 10 earthquake-prone cities, the new PGA estimates were compared with those picked from these two maps. Next, individual site-based hazard estimates were drawn for these city centers considering the return periods of 43,
72, 140, and 475 years. The present hazard map was in compliance with the seismotectonic setup of Turkey and its PGA estimates were slightly high compared with the last two hazard maps for some specific regions, most of which are located in major active fault zones with a history of intense seismic activity, albeit the figures for low seismic zones were relatively low. With this study, it becomes clear that the process of PSHA, which innately requires a long and tiresome effort, can instantaneously be performed against the changing of catalog data over time, and thence prompt evaluations on variations can consequently be made. Keywords Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) . Peak ground acceleration (PGA) . Seismicity of Turkey . Bayesian estimation . Posteriori probability
1 Introduction M. Nas (*) Department of Civil Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey e-mail: [email protected] A. Lyubushin Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya, 10, Moscow, Russia M. Softa Department of Geological Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, 35390 Izmir, Turkey Y. Bayrak Department of Geophysics, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey
One of the most significant aspects of seismicity is its spatiotemporally varying and mostly implicit potential for creating instantaneous structural damage. Among several strong ground-motion amplitudes, the horizontal component of peak ground acceleration (PGA) has widely been used for both structural vulnerability assessment and design of earthquake-resistant structures. Therefore, a significant fraction of seismic hazard assessments is carried out with a focus on PGA. The aim of seismic hazard analysis, done by purpose-oriented statistical methodologies mostly based on the contents of k
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