Hazard estimation of Kashmir Basin, NW Himalaya using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
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RESEARCH ARTICLE - SOLID EARTH SCIENCES
Hazard estimation of Kashmir Basin, NW Himalaya using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Maqbool Yousuf1 · Kaiser Bukhari1 Received: 14 March 2020 / Accepted: 9 September 2020 © Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences 2020
Abstract This study presents hazard estimation of Kashmir Basin, NW Himalaya using regional ground motion relations, representing one of the most seismically active region in the Himalayan belt. Fault-level seismic recurrence parameters are determined from an updated earthquake catalogue spanning from 25 to 2018 AD for all possible seismic sources. The estimated hazard maps are presented for three ground motion parameters (PGA, short and long period spectral acceleration) for 50, 100, 500 and 2500 years return periods. Moreover, uniform hazard response spectrums and hazard curves are presented for all ten districts of the basin. The southern section of the basin consisting districts of Budgam, Shopian, Pulwama and Kulgam show higher hazard levels due to presence of numerous seismogenic structures in close vicinity. Our results highlight that the imposed seismic hazard in Kashmir basin is highly underestimated which need to be redressed by modifying the current provisional design standards. Keywords Himalaya · Hazard estimation · PSHA · UHRS · Kashmir Basin
Introduction The Kashmir basin (KB) is situated in the NW portion of the Himalaya. The basin sits close to Indo-Eurasian plate boundary and within the reach of earthquakes from numerous tectonically active sources in and around the basin. The area has been hit by numerous destructive earthquakes documented in historical records, like notable events of 844, 1123, 1501, 1555, 1735, 1778, 1828, 1863, 1885, 1905 and 2005 which caused destructive effects on natural and built environment with estimated EMS intensity VII–VIII for most of these quakes (Yousuf et al. 2020). With high seismicity in this region, the excessive increase in the population has resulted in large exposure to the seismic vulnerability (Bukhari et al. 2018; Yousuf et al. 2018, 2020; Bilham 2019). The vulnerability of the present population can be significantly mitigated by providing awareness on disaster mitigation and preparedness. Hence, the need of the hour is to robustly and reasonably estimate the existing seismic hazard of KB.
* Maqbool Yousuf [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India
The erstwhile seismic hazard studies in the India and particularly present studied region (Khattri et al. 1984; Bhatia et al. 1999; BIS 2002; Parvez et al. 2003; NDMA 2011; Nath and Thingbaijam 2012) specify that these hazard assessments were established on empirical relations developed for provinces with entirely different geological, seismotectonic settings. NDMA (2011), formulated new empirical relations (A classes) for Indian mainland and adjoining areas while considering the regional geological and seismotecto
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