Flow-based seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network employing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
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Flow‑based seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network employing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Sungsik Yoon1 · Young‑Joo Lee2 · Hyung‑Jo Jung1 Received: 7 March 2019 / Accepted: 26 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract In this study, a seismic risk assessment model was proposed to evaluate the seismic reliability of a water transmission network. The proposed risk assessment model involves earthquake generation and hydraulic analysis modules. To consider a comprehensive approach, the numerical simulation strategy includes probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, buried pipeline deterioration, numerical modeling of network facilities, and the interdependency between pumping plant and substation. For this purpose, a flowbased MATLAB code has been developed that enables iterative hydraulic analysis using EPANET software. For numerical simulation, the epicenter and earthquake magnitudes were determined based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, and a real water transmission network in South Korea was constructed. From the numerical results, two performance indicators (system serviceability and nodal serviceability) and four mean normal status ratios of facilities were adopted to evaluate the network performance. In addition, a component importance measure of facilities in a network system was calculated by introducing a reduction factor. The numerical results using the proposed flow-based model show that the system performance is affected by buried pipeline deterioration and network interdependency, as well as the location and magnitude of the input earthquake. It is thus concluded that the seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network should be performed using a model with a comprehensive approach. Keywords Water transmission network · Flow-based network analysis · Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis · Seismic risk assessment · Pipeline deterioration · Network interdependency
* Hyung‑Jo Jung [email protected] 1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak‑ro, Yuseong‑gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
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Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, 50 UNIST‑gil, Eonyang‑eup, Ulju‑gun, Ulsan 44919, Republic of Korea
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Natural disasters such as earthquakes have a significant impact on water supply facilities, causing commercial damage and disruption in residential activity. Although the probability of an earthquake is very low, the need for preliminary preparation and recovery strategies is increasing, as an earthquake can lead to considerable social disruption. In particular, damage to social infrastructures, such as lifeline facilities that are concentrated throughout an entire city, can cause not only direct but also secondary damage, resulting in long-term water supply problems. In addition, since a water network is interdependent with other lifeline facilities such as the powe
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