Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Singapore
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Singapore Wenqi Du1 · Tso‑Chien Pan2,3 Received: 16 November 2019 / Accepted: 5 June 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Seismic hazard assessment of metropolitan areas is an important topic in catastrophe risk management and disaster prevention. In this study, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is performed to estimate the seismic hazard for Singapore. The PSHA approach has been conducted based on the OpenQuake engine. An updated earthquake catalog for the neighboring region has been compiled from various sources, and three major source zones are identified using the updated earthquake catalog: Sumatra subduction zone, Sumatran strike–slip fault, and deformation–background zone. Also, 10 published ground motion prediction equations are incorporated in the logic-tree framework, which properly accounts for the epistemic uncertainty of ground motion intensity measures. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values in the mean hazard maps at bedrock sites of Singapore for 10% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years range from 0.04 to 0.05 g and from 0.14 to 0.15 g, respectively. The uniform hazard spectrum consisting of PGA and seven spectral accelerations is generated for rock sites in Singapore. Disaggregation analysis shows that the deformation zone identified contributes dominantly to the PGA hazard of Singapore, whereas the Sumatran strike–slip fault contributes dominantly to the long-period (spectral acceleration at 1.0 s) hazard. Besides, the seismic hazard maps for representative site conditions of Singapore are briefly presented. Keywords PSHA · Subduction · Strike–slip · Uniform hazard spectrum · Seismic hazard maps · Singapore
* Wenqi Du [email protected] 1
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Institute of Engineering Risk and Disaster Prevention, Wuhan University, 299 Bayi Road, Wuhan 430072, China
2
Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, and School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798, Singapore
3
Green Buildings and Smart Cities Program, Sino-Singapore International Joint Research Institute (SSIJRI), Guangzhou 510000, China
13
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been widely used in earthquake engineering practice, quantifying the rate of exceeding ground motion intensity levels at a site given all possible earthquake scenarios (Cornell 1968). Recently, the PSHA approach has been conducted for specific regions by various researchers (e.g., Vilanova and Fonseca 2007; Petersen et al. 2008; Menon et al. 2010; Bozzoni et al. 2011; Woessner et al. 2015; Wang et al. 2016). For instance, Bozzoni et al. (2011) presented PSHA-based hazard maps for the Eastern Caribbean Islands, and Wang et al. (2016) carried out a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Taiwan implemented in the OpenQuake engine (Pagani et al. 2014). Probabilistic seismic hazard is generall
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