Long-term flood risk assessment of watersheds under climate change based on the game cross-efficiency DEA
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Long‑term flood risk assessment of watersheds under climate change based on the game cross‑efficiency DEA Qingmu Su1 Received: 2 December 2019 / Accepted: 27 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Climate change has significantly increased extreme precipitation and altered regional hydrological cycle, aggravating flood in the watershed. The effective measurement of the risk brought by climate change is an effective way to cope with flood hazard in the future. At the same time, the quality of the simulation of climate change scenarios will also affect the accuracy of flood risk assessment. Therefore, a comprehensive method is needed to measure the long-term disaster risk. However, the current method of subjectively assigning indicator weights is still subjective and difficult to be promoted and applied. So a new model for assessing watershed risk is constructed in this study. Based on the game crossefficiency data envelopment analysis method and the combination of simulations of climate scenarios, the model can determine the input factors of the assessment and the influencing level of the input factors by using the Principal Component Analysis and Tobit model. The model comprehensively evaluates the flood risk level in the watershed with the results of the simulation of hazard in different climate scenarios, hazard exposure and social vulnerability as input factors, and the degree of disaster loss as the output factor. Results: (1) the hazard, exposure, and social vulnerability are spatially mismatched; (2) the overall risk in the watershed presents such a pattern: upstream (0.751) > downstream (0.418) > midstream (0.362); (3) the long-term flood hazard may be reduced under the influence of climate change. The research is helpful to formulate long-term flood mitigation strategies in the future. Keywords Climate scenario simulation · Flood disaster · Risk assessment · Data envelopment analysis
* Qingmu Su [email protected] 1
Department of Urban Planning, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction The hazard to the environment caused by climate change is increasing, which may pose an increasingly severe threat to almost all sectors and all subregions around the world (IPCC 2014; Chiang 2018), and lead to more frequent extreme climates in the future. In particular, climate change is likely to alter the hydrological cycle in many regions, resulting in changes in precipitation intensity and distribution (Chang and Su 2020). River flood is considered to be one of the main causes of global losses of economy and human life. Between 1995 and 2015, 43% of the natural disasters worldwide were related to floods (UNISDR and CRED 2015). The irreversible impact and uncertainty of climate change bring higher risks to future flood management. The assessment of the flood risk under long-term climate change can be used as an important tool for flood prevention, which can increase public’s awareness of flood risks. In other words, the flood ri
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