Potential dynamic of irrigation water requirement for rice across Northeast China
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Potential dynamic of irrigation water requirement for rice across Northeast China Lei Zhang 1 & Fangying Tan 1 & Sen Li 1 & Zhiguo Huo 2,3 Received: 1 March 2020 / Accepted: 25 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Sufficient water is essential for maintaining rice production yields, but precipitation and ground water generally do not meet the requirements for rice growth. Irrigation is therefore necessary and the quantity of irrigation water requirement (IWR) is also highly dependent on climatic alterations. We utilized an ensemble of 20 fine-resolution downscaled global climate models to characterize the future dynamics of IWR across Northeast China, under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Crop evapotranspiration was a critical factor in IWR determinations and was estimated through the Hargreaves model. The model was recalibrated to optimize its performance and this resulted in normalized root mean squared errors of < 10%. Based on reliable crop evapotranspiration and effective precipitation data in baseline (1976–2005) and future periods (2036–2065 and 2070–2099), IWR decreased from southwestern Heilongjiang and western Jilin to the southeastern and northeastern areas. The IWR displayed a general increasing trend but overall the tendency decreased from west to east. The western areas were exposed to higher magnitudes of IWR increases, indicating that the water deficit for rice would be more severe in these regions. IWR levels increased with time slice under RCP8.5 relative to RCP4.5. The predicted IWR changes in future periods were greatest for Heilongjiang, followed by Jilin and Liaoning. In addition, Heilongjiang was predicted to have the most stable IWR in the future. These predictions of IWR dynamics highlight sensitive areas prone to water deficits and can serve as guides for specific irrigation schedules in the different rice growing regions across Northeast China.
1 Introduction Water is an essential resource that has a broad impact on socioeconomic systems and natural ecosystems (Schaldach et al. 2012). Water usage by cultivated crops is a primary issue facing modern agriculture and changing patterns of precipitation make regional and local water scarcity events more probable around the world (Gosling and Arnell 2016; Mancosu et al. 2016; Wang et al. 2017). Driven by climate change, there Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03366-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Zhiguo Huo [email protected] 1
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
2
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
3
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
are serious risks of water shortage in China, even in the places with relatively abundant water resources includin
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