Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: modelling approach including
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: modelling approach including prediction of future drought events using drought indices M. Afzal1,2 · R. Ragab1 Received: 25 September 2019 / Accepted: 24 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract In this study, the Distributed Catchment-Scale Model, DiCaSM, was used to study the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Eden catchment, north east of Scotland. As a first step, the model was successfully calibrated and validated for a 42 years period. The DiCaSM model was then used to study the impact of climate change on the water availability. Data from the UKCP09 Climate change scenarios for the 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods, considering three gas emission scenarios (low, medium and high), were applied. The results indicated that the greatest decrease in streamflow and groundwater recharge was projected to happen under the high emission scenarios towards the end of the century, i.e. between 2070 and 2099. This would mainly be due to the summers becoming drier. Meanwhile, the projected increase in winter precipitation did not contribute much towards groundwater recharge due the projected increases in evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficit. The following drought indices were calculated and were found to be effective in predicting different types of droughts: the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, the modified adjusted RDI, the Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and the Wetness Index, WI. The findings of the study have broader implications in water resources management considering the future changes in climate. Keywords Climate change · DiCaSM model · Drought indices · Eden catchment · hydrological modelling
Introduction Scotland is perceived to be a country with an abundance of precipitation and ample water resources. Water resources, however, are affected by climate variability and land use practices and certain areas of Scotland have experienced droughts in the recent past. Water demand and supply varies greatly across the UK. The North of the UK, and Scotland in particular, is less populated than the rest of the UK and receives significant precipitation but it is not necessarily true that a region which is generally considered as waterrich, will always meet its water requirements over the entire * R. Ragab [email protected] 1
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UK CEH), Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxfordshire, UK
School of Natural Sciences, The University of Central Lancashire, Preston, UK
2
region. Studies demonstrated that the precipitation gradient across the UK has been accentuated with the northwest becoming wetter, notably in the winter, and the southeast becoming drier during the summer (Mayes, 2000). Alexander et al. (2005) reported that precipitation over the UK had been on the increase since the 1950s, with precipitation coming in frequent short periods of high intensity rai
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