Development of an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale
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Development of an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale Sarah Alexander 1 & Ezana Atsbeha 2 & Selam Negatu 2 & Kristen Kirksey 2 & Dominique Brossard 3 & Elizabeth Holzer 2 & Paul Block 1 Received: 23 March 2020 / Accepted: 25 August 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecast development and science communication best practice is a critical step towards the integration of climate information into decision-making practices for enhanced community resilience to climate variability. Recent efforts in the physical sciences have focused on the development of seasonal climate forecasts, with increased emphasis on tailoring this information to user needs at the local scale. Advances in science communication have progressed understandings of how to leverage subjective decision-making processes and trust to communicate risky, probabilistic information. Yet, seasonal climate forecasts remain underutilized in local decision-making, due to challenging divides between the physical and social sciences and the lack of an approach that combines expert knowledge across disciplines. We outline an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to communicate local-scale predictive information by advancing a co-produced “package” that pairs a highly visual bulletin with public engagement sessions, both developed with direct user-developer engagement, leveraging existing networks and novel inclusion of uncertainty through locally relevant analogies to enhance the understanding of probabilistic information. Systematic observations revealed some level of understanding among the target audience, yet identified major processes of confusion that inhibit forecast utility. Probabilistic predictions communicated in reference to “normal” years proved to be an unintelligible comparison for individuals, given preferences for certainty in interpreting risk-related information. Our approach addresses key gaps in the literature and serves as a framework for bridging the disconnect between forecast development and science communication to advance communication and integration of climate predictions for community benefit. Keywords Seasonal climate forecast . Science communication . Public engagement . Interdisciplinary . Ethiopia
* Paul Block [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Season-ahead forecasts of various hydroclimate variables have been developed for many regions worldwide in the last decade, demonstrating notable prediction skill and showing promise for advanced prediction at the local, decision-making scale (Souza Filho and Lall 2003; Troccoli 2010; Korecha and Sorteberg 2013; Madadgar and Moradkhani 2013; Zhang et al. 2016; Alexander et al. 2019). Yet, as the skill and scientific merit of both dynamic and statistical forecast models evolve, evidence of understanding, uptake, and use of these forecasts by intended users remains sparse (Pfaff et a
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