Planning for climate change: evaluating the changing patterns of flood vulnerability in a case study in New Taipei City,
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Planning for climate change: evaluating the changing patterns of flood vulnerability in a case study in New Taipei City, Taiwan Tzu-Ling Chen1 • Zih-Hong Lin1 Accepted: 26 September 2020 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Global climate change has resulted in extreme events occurring with increasing intensity and frequency. Due to the limitations of traditional structural engineering measurements, vulnerability measurement has become critical in disaster mitigation according to the IPCC and UNISDR. Currently, flood vulnerability studies focus on evaluating the present state of flood vulnerability at various spatial scales. Different levels of development progress and varying environmental factors result in variations in disaster capacity in urban and rural areas. Therefore, this study explores the temporal and spatial variations of vulnerability in urban and rural built environments by using spatial autocorrelation analysis and principal component analysis. Bivariate local indicators of spatial association (LISA) results show that particular areas maintain high or low vulnerability in both examined years: 2008 and 2018. The critical differences between HH and LL might be caused by different urban development statuses and insufficient emergency or recovery facilities. Keywords Flood vulnerability Urban and rural area Spatial autocorrelation analysis Principal component analysis
1 Introduction Global climate change has resulted in the frequent occurrence of extreme disaster events and has become a serious challenge in disaster impact management. According to global disaster statistics from the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), floods are the most frequently occurring natural disaster, and low-lying areas with high population densities in East and Southeast Asia might face a higher risk of flooding (IPCC 2014; Kind et al. 2017; Lian et al. 2017; UNISDR 2019). Two official documents on global disaster reduction—the Hyogo Framework and Sendai Framework have emphasized that vulnerability is the key in disaster mitigation (UNISDR 2007, 2015), for instance, the studies of vulnerability reveal the factors which cause disaster; the evaluations of vulnerability provide specific information for disaster mitigation strategies; & Tzu-Ling Chen [email protected] Zih-Hong Lin [email protected] 1
Department of Urban Development, University of Taipei, Taipei, Taiwan
the management of vulnerability help governments improve the performance of disaster mitigation (Schanze et al. 2007; Chang and Chen 2016; Yang et al. 2018a, b; Foreman 2019; Feloni et al. 2020). Elements of vulnerability in the environment can present hazards and increase the probability of disaster damage (Alam 2017). Furthermore, the 1.5 Degrees Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes that it is necessary to manage vulnerability and the capability to adapt (IPCC 2018). There is increasing attention to measuring vulnerability, adaptation, and resi
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