Pollution, economic growth, and COVID-19 deaths in India: a machine learning evidence
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Pollution, economic growth, and COVID-19 deaths in India: a machine learning evidence Marco Mele 1
&
Cosimo Magazzino 2
Received: 9 June 2020 / Accepted: 31 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This study uses two different approaches to explore the relationship between pollution emissions, economic growth, and COVID-19 deaths in India. Using a time series approach and annual data for the years from 1980 to 2018, stationarity and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests were performed. The results highlight unidirectional causality between economic growth and pollution. Then, a D2C algorithm on proportion-based causality is applied, implementing the Oryx 2.0.8 protocol in Apache. The underlying hypothesis is that a predetermined pollution concentration, caused by economic growth, could foster COVID-19 by making the respiratory system more susceptible to infection. We use data (from January 29 to May 18, 2020) on confirmed deaths (total and daily) and air pollution concentration levels for 25 major Indian cities. We verify a ML causal link between PM2.5, CO2, NO2, and COVID-19 deaths. The implications require careful policy design. Keywords Economic growth . Pollution . COVID-19 . Time series . Machine learning . India
Introduction In recent years, India’s economic growth has increased very quickly; this country exhibits one of the highest growth rates for a developing country. Numerous production sectors have grown and in addition to the steel and metallurgical sectors, the textile and oil refining industries have also expanded. This economic growth has increased the number of jobs in cities and the populations of large urban areas, such as Delhi and Mumbai. However, the growth of towns and the consequent need for more supplies have damaged the delicate environment of India, where there are high levels of smog, fine dust, and water Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues * Marco Mele [email protected] Cosimo Magazzino [email protected] 1
Department of Political Sciences, University of Teramo, Teramo, Italy
2
Department of Political Sciences, University of Roma Tre, Rome, Italy
pollution. Air contamination in India has expanded quickly with the increasing population, increasing number of vehicles, increasing energy utilization, poor transportation framework, poor land use, industrialization and especially with the inadequate environmental guidelines. According to Conibear et al. (2018), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter (PM) contribute in part to the toxins causing environmental contamination. Many Indian urban communities including Mumbai, Kolkata, and Pune are at risk of air contamination. India’s air contamination emergency is generally due to the toxic, winter air quality in Delhi, and in a few urban areas in the north and central India (Awasthi et al. 2016). According to Gurjar et al. (2016), the air quality due to pollution is so poor in India that about 1.2 million deaths can be directly attributed to it. Gu
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