Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand Robert J. Cardwell 1,2
&
Garry W. McDonald 2
&
Liam M. Wotherspoon 1
Received: 27 January 2020 / Accepted: 15 July 2020 # International Association of Volcanology & Chemistry of the Earth's Interior 2020
Abstract Current impact assessment methods do not have the capability to simulate the impacts of volcanic eruptions in both highresolution spatial detail and as they vary through time under the economic structures of post-hazard event scenarios. We couple a land use change model and an economic model that can simulate post-hazard event economies and the impacts that occur over a 4-year period following a hypothetical eruption for the Auckland region of New Zealand. The eruption scenario includes pyroclastic surges and lava flows that directly impact an urban area of 9600 ha. The results illustrate that because of the cascading impacts on infrastructure networks, disruption to businesses and staff and connections within the economy, land use changes outside of the areas directly impacted by physical volcanic hazards are significant relative to the impacts on land use in areas directly affected by the physical hazards. The results also demonstrate the capability to simulate the dynamic recovery pathway of the economy after the eruption has occurred and that an integrated land use and economic model has the potential to serve as a basis for simulating and evaluating alternative redevelopment strategies for urban areas following volcanic eruptions. Keywords Eruption impact assessment . Integrated land use-economic model . Pyroclastic and lava flow hazard . Urban area
Introduction A volcanic eruption in the vicinity of an urban area has the potential for a significant impact from pre-eruption through to post-eruption periods (Blong 1984; Duncan et al. 1996; Chester et al. 1999, 2015; Tedesco et al. 2007). While the impact of volcanic eruptions has been relatively small compared with other natural hazards in the twentieth and twentyfirst centuries, there are nonetheless approximately 600 million people living in urban areas that are vulnerable to volcanic hazards (Auker et al. 2013). With increased urbanization globally, the number of people who are vulnerable is expected to increase (Chester et al. 2000). The city of Auckland in New Zealand, a modern metropolitan area of approximately 1.6 million people, which is situated directly on top of a volcanic Editorial responsibility: C.E.Gregg * Robert J. Cardwell [email protected] 1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
2
Market Economics, Auckland, New Zealand
field of at least 53 volcanoes, is one such location. Unlike many eruptions in recent history that have either occurred in rural locations or completely destroyed whole urban areas (Voight 1990; Duncan et al. 1996; Loughlin et al. 2002), if the sizes of past eruptions in Auckland are indicative of the most li
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