Variation in Anopheles distribution and predictors of malaria infection risk across regions of Madagascar
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Malaria Journal Open Access
RESEARCH
Variation in Anopheles distribution and predictors of malaria infection risk across regions of Madagascar Nicholas J. Arisco1* , Benjamin L. Rice2, Luciano M. Tantely3, Romain Girod3, Gauthier N. Emile4, Hervet J. Randriamady4, Marcia C. Castro1 and Christopher D. Golden1,5,6
Abstract Background: Deforestation and land use change is widespread in Madagascar, altering local ecosystems and creating opportunities for disease vectors, such as the Anopheles mosquito, to proliferate and more easily reach vulnerable, rural populations. Knowledge of risk factors associated with malaria infections is growing globally, but these associations remain understudied across Madagascar’s diverse ecosystems experiencing rapid environmental change. This study aims to uncover socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection across regions through analysis of a large, cross-sectional dataset. Methods: The objectives were to assess (1) the ecological correlates of malaria vector breeding through larval surveys, and (2) the socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection in four ecologically distinct regions of rural Madagascar. Risk factors were determined using multilevel models for the four regions included in the study. Results: The presence of aquatic agriculture (both within and surrounding communities) is the strongest predictive factor of habitats containing Anopheles larvae across all regions. Ecological and socioeconomic risk factors for malaria infection vary dramatically across study regions and range in their complexity. Conclusions: Risk factors for malaria transmission differ dramatically across regions of Madagascar. These results may help stratifying current malaria control efforts in Madagascar beyond the scope of existing interventions. Keywords: Land use change, Planetary health, Disease ecology, Vector-borne disease, Malaria Background Agricultural expansion and associated changes in land use, such as deforestation for food production, can create new microhabitats and alter the distribution or density of species, including mosquitoes. These changes can increase the number of suitable larval habitats for mosquito species, including Anopheles mosquitoes, the *Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Avenue, Building 2, Room 329, Boston, MA 02115, USA Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
vectors for human malaria [1–4]. Changes in vector populations are mediated by local ecological factors, such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, the suitability of water habitats for mosquito larvae, and forest cover [5]. For example, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has increased suitable breeding habitats and conditions for certain Anopheles species, increasing vector density, while in the western Kenyan highlands, deforestation and changes to local ecology have lowered the survival t
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