The effect of climate change on the maximum temperature in Southwest Iraq using HadCM3 and CanESM2 modelling
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The effect of climate change on the maximum temperature in Southwest Iraq using HadCM3 and CanESM2 modelling Waqed Hammed Hassan1 · Forqan S. Hashim1 Received: 22 June 2020 / Accepted: 5 August 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract In the twenty-first century, climate change has become a major environmental threat specifically for regions which are already dry. The identification and assessment of climate change in the future are therefore paramount for suitable environmental planning in order to adapt to and decrease its impact. In this research, changes in the maximum temperature in Iraq over the period 2020–2099, were generated by two general circulation GCM models, HadCM3 and CanESM2, based on emission scenarios A2, B2, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP 8.5. After checking the ability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to generate climatic data based on the period 1979 to 2018, the daily maximum temperature was downscaled for the period 2020–2099 in seven meteorological stations in Iraq. The results of the uncertainty analysis show the maximum temperature generation using the CanESM2 model with emission scenario RCP 2.6, having the best performance among all stations. The results also show an increase in maximum temperature of between 0.3 and 1.2 °C across all stations by the end of the twenty-first century. This increase in the maximum temperature impacts water resources due to increased evaporation from surface water, causing water scarcity. Changes in the maximum temperature show more of an increase using the HadCM3 model when compared with CanESM2, for all stations in Iraq. Keywords Climate change · Statistical downscaling model · Maximum temperature changes · RCP scenarios · SDSM
1 Introduction In arid/semiarid areas in the Middle East, climate change is an unexpected and intricate phenomenon attributed to human activity and greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in the temperature in humid and arid areas have been observed in most parts of the world but changes of temperature in dry regions are of concern as these will speed up the desertification process. Climate change can affect groundwater resources in a number of ways, both directly and indirectly. Changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures will directly impact groundwater discharge, recharge, storage and general water levels. In addition to this, a rise in sea levels, demand for water for irrigation and changes in vegetation cover can
affect groundwater quality and quantity indirectly. Higher temperatures will lead to increased evaporation and plant transpiration rates which mean drier soil, this in turn leading to higher losses of soil moisture and groundwater recharge [1]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that they expect an increase in temperature of between 1 and 3.5 °C due to an increase in greenhouse gases, by the end of this century [2]. This pattern of global warming is expected to increase through the twenty-first century under all representative concentration pathways (RCPs). This i
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