The low carbon development options for Russia
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The low carbon development options for Russia George Safonov 1 & Vladimir Potashnikov 2 & Oleg Lugovoy 2 & Mikhail Safonov 3 & Alexandra Dorina 1 & Andrei Bolotov 4 Received: 4 December 2017 / Accepted: 25 June 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Russia is one of the largest carbon emitters in the world, possessing huge resources of both fossil fuels and zero-carbon energy sources. The Paris Agreement targets require substantial efforts to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C”. Energy-economic modeling provides sound conclusions that continuation of existing energy and climate policy will lead to stabilization of energy carbon emissions in Russia at the current level in 2010–2050 (about 30% below 1990). Stronger mitigation policies could gradually reduce domestic energy CO2 emissions by 61% from 2010 to 2050 (75% below 1990). Deep decarbonization policies with even more ambitious commitments could ensure an 83% reduction in energy CO2 emissions from 2010 levels (88% below 1990) by 2050. All key sectors (energy, industries, transport, and buildings) can play a substantial role in decarbonizing the national economy. However Russia’s historical reliance on domestic consumption and exports of fossil fuels creates strong barriers to decarbonization. Emission reduction costs are expected to be below 29 USD/tCO2 by 2030, 55 USD/ tCO2 by 2040, and 82 USD/tCO2 by 2050 in the most ambitious decarbonization scenario. The results of this study provide insights into how Russia can enhance its ambitions to implement the Paris Agreement and contribute to global efforts toward building a climate-neutral economy by 2050. Keywords Russia . Decarbonization . Climate change . Paris Agreement . Carbon emissions . Low carbon development
* George Safonov [email protected]
1
National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), Moscow, Russia
2
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia
3
University of California, Irvine (UCI), Irvine, CA, USA
4
Russian State Agrarian University (RSAU), Moscow, Russia
Climatic Change
1 Russia’s importance for global mitigation efforts Being the largest country by land area, Russia plays an extremely important role in global climate: its forests cover 871 million hectares (20% of the world's forests), agricultural land use occupies 221 million hectares (10% of the world's arable land), and its reserves of fossil fuels exceed 350 billion tons of oil equivalent (toe) or 14,653 EJ, about 0.4% of which is extracted annually for domestic consumption and exports. Russia’s net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached a peak in 1990, amounting to 3896 MtCO2e, or 17% of total emissions among the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Annex I parties. However, from 1990 to 2000, GHG emissions declined by 53%, reaching 1829 MtCO2e by 2000. This was primarily due to a deep restructuring of the Russian economy after the political and economic crisis in the 1990s, structural and technological changes in indust
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