Towards Temporal Analysis of Integrated Scenarios for Sustainable Innovation

We propose the TEMPORANA framework for analysis of integrated scenarios aiming at studying the possible effects on the society of sustainable innovation policies. The framework consists of a set of advanced temporal queries for scenario analysis and a sof

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DIA Department, University of Trieste and ICAR-CNR, Trieste, Italy [email protected] 2 ENEA, CR Casaccia, Rome, Italy {ilaria.delia,antonio.denicola,marialuisa.villani}@enea.it, [email protected]

Abstract. We propose the TEMPORANA framework for analysis of integrated scenarios aiming at studying the possible effects on the society of sustainable innovation policies. The framework consists of a set of advanced temporal queries for scenario analysis and a software application. Integrated scenarios are possible future states of different aspects of the world (e.g., energy, environment, technology, economy, societal system) representing plausible conditions under different assumptions. Temporal scenario queries aim at detecting a specified behavior for the system over time and, hence, at verifying that a temporal property holds.

Keywords: Environmental modelling management

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Temporal analysis

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Scenarios

Introduction

Sustainable innovation polices concern different interlinked aspects of the society related to the environment, energy, technologies, economy, and the societal system. Before defining new policies, policy makers need to define different scenarios in order to take aware decisions. Scenarios are possible future states of the world representing plausible conditions under different assumptions [8]. They represent future projections of a system obtained by means of some computational model. Policy makers involved in the definition of sustainable innovation policies need tools to envision the consequences of their decisions and the potential impact of the adopted measures. To this purpose various tools exist that allow definition of possible scenarios, each from a specific perspective. For instance a scenario from the energy and technology perspective can be obtained through the MARKAL-TIMES [9] model. Scenario for the definition of atmospheric pollution policies could be defined with the GAINS [6] model, used to describe possible paths of evolution for greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Finally a scenario for macroeconomic analysis can be generated through methods like Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) c Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016  O. Gervasi et al. (Eds.): ICCSA 2016, Part V, LNCS 9790, pp. 544–551, 2016. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-42092-9 41

Towards Temporal Analysis of Integrated Scenarios

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[10] and GTAP model [7]. However these systems have been conceived from a sectoral perspective and, mainly, aim at generating new scenarios. According to [8], the scenario development process consists of five phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, risk management [8]. Here we aim at supporting scenario analysis as the abovementioned tools provide support mainly for scenario definition and construction and, only partially, for scenario analysis. In particular, they do not provide support for the analysis and comparison of multiple integrated scenarios and of the temporal evolutions of their variables. Furthermore experts need tools allo