Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources Gui-Quan Sun . Shi-Fu Wang . Ming-Tao Li . Li Li . Juan Zhang . Wei Zhang . Zhen Jin . Guo-Lin Feng
Received: 21 April 2020 / Accepted: 14 June 2020 Ó Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Due to the strong infectivity of COVID19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on
mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These
G.-Q. Sun (&) Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, Shanxi, China e-mail: [email protected]
L. Li Science and Technology on Electronic Test and Measurement Laboratory, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, Shanxi, China
G.-Q. Sun J. Zhang W. Zhang Z. Jin Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
G.-L. Feng College of Physics Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, Jiangsu Province, China
S.-F. Wang Department of Children’s Medical Laboratory Diagnosis Center, Qilu Children’s Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan 250022, China
G.-L. Feng Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
M.-T. Li School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, China L. Li School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
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G.-Q. Sun et al.
findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely. Keywords COVID-19 Transmission dynamics Lockdown Medical resources
1 Introduction COVID-19 is pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus which is an emerging infectious disease and reported early in Wuhan, China [1]. Then, Chinese government promptly informed the World Health Organization (WHO) of the real situation of it. In January 20, 2020, the characteristics of human to human transmission are publicly presented by Nanshan Zhong, who is the member of national high-level expert group. After that, people took some protective measures including restricted travel, isolation and wearing a mask. At the same time, the novel coronavirus was isolated and gene s
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