Understanding the geographic pattern of diffusion of modern crop varieties in India: a multilevel modeling approach
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Understanding the geographic pattern of diffusion of modern crop varieties in India: a multilevel modeling approach Anjani Kumar 1 & Jaweriah Hazrana 2 & Digvijay S. Negi 3 & Pratap S. Birthal 2 & Gaurav Tripathi 1 Received: 1 March 2020 / Accepted: 13 October 2020 # International Society for Plant Pathology and Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The diffusion of agricultural technologies is influenced by a number of factors, including the farm-, household- and locationspecific characteristics, institutions, infrastructures, and agri-food policies. The empirical literature, however, focuses largely on the household-level factors, ignoring the higher-level factors that simultaneously may influence the technology diffusion process. Employing a multilevel modeling approach this paper analyzes the mutually reinforcing and reciprocal relationships between people (compositional effects) and places (contextual effects) to know the relative importance of different geographical or administrative levels in the diffusion of modern crop varieties in India. The findings show strong contextual effects of states (i.e., policies) and also equally strong compositional effects of the between household differences. These findings suggest the need for a greater policy emphasis on agricultural research and dissemination of its outputs, and redressal of the constraints that farmers face in switching over to new technologies and innovations. Further, the findings also suggest that relaxing credit and information constraints will accelerate the spread of technology diffusion. The contextual effects of the intermediate geographical levels are small, and point towards strengthening coordination between different geographical levels for faster dissemination of technologies and subsequent realization of their economic and social outcomes. Keywords Diffusion of modern varieties . Cereals . Multilevel modelling . India
1 Introduction During the latter half of the twentieth century, the diffusion of short-duration nutrient-efficient high-yielding varieties of cereal crops, supported by massive investments in irrigation and agricultural infrastructures, institutions, and policies (i.e., input subsidies and output price support) propelled many a developing countries in Asia, including India, towards selfsufficiency in staple foods, especially rice and wheat. India Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-020-01114-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Gaurav Tripathi [email protected] 1
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), South Asia Regional Office, New Delhi, India
2
ICAR–National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi, India
3
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
experienced a tremendous increase in cereal production, from 97 million tons in 1970–71 to 260 million tons in 2016–17. This revolutionary change, often referred to as ‘
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