Using traveller-derived cases in Henan Province to quantify the spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
- PDF / 620,443 Bytes
- 11 Pages / 547.087 x 737.008 pts Page_size
- 33 Downloads / 163 Views
ORIGINAL PAPER
Using traveller-derived cases in Henan Province to quantify the spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China Haitao Song · Feng Li · Zhongwei Jia · Zhen Jin · Shengqiang Liu
Received: 24 April 2020 / Accepted: 29 July 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Wuhan shutdown was implemented on January 23 and the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) was launched over the country, and then China got the outbreak of COVID-19 under control. A mathematical model is established to study the transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan. This research investigates the spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan and assesses the effectiveness of control measures including the Wuhan city travel ban and FLRPHE. Based on the dynamical analysis and data fitting, the transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan is estimated and the effects of control measures including Wuhan city travel ban and H. Song · Z. Jin Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China H. Song · Z. Jin Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China F. Li Data Science and Technology, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China F. Li College of Arts and Sciences, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, China Z. Jia National Institute of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China S. Liu (B) School of Mathematical Sciences, Tiangong University, Tianjin 300387, China e-mail: [email protected]
FLRPHE are investigated. According to the assumptions, the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 estimated that for Wuhan equal to 7.53 and there are 4.718 × 104 infectious people in Wuhan as of January 23. The interventions including the Wuhan city travel ban and FLRPHE reduce the size of peak and the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID19 in Wuhan by 99%. The extraordinary efforts implemented by China effectively contain the transmission of COVID-19 and protect public health in China. Keywords COVID-19 · Mathematical model · Traveller-derived cases · Basic reproduction number · Interventions · Wuhan city travel ban
1 Introduction In December 2019, the novel coronavirus pneumonia case was reported in Wuhan, a metropolis with a population of 14.1865 million. On 20 January 2020, humanto-human transmission of the novel Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was confirmed [1,2]. By January 23, 2020, 495 confirmed cases and 23 deaths were reported. However, no vaccine and special medicine are used to treat the patients of COVID-19. Then, a series of control measures were implemented to prevent and control the transmission of COVID-19. To stop the further dispersal of COVID-19 from Wuhan to other cities, Wuhan shutdown was implemented to limit movement of people in and out of Wuhan on Jan-
123
H. Song et al.
uary 23, 2020 [3], which is the most stringent quarantine measures for a metropolis with a population of over 10 million in human history. On the same day, the first-level response to public health emergencies (FLRP
Data Loading...
