Probabilistic assessment of tephra fallout hazard at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China
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Probabilistic assessment of tephra fallout hazard at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China Hongmei Yu • Jiandong Xu • Peng Luan • Bo Zhao • Bo Pan
Received: 23 January 2013 / Accepted: 2 April 2013 Ó Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Abstract Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by volcanic eruption, and is also one of the main hazards at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China. Numerical simulation is an effective approach to assess the dispersion of tephra fallout. According to the theory of dispersion model, we developed a simple and practical diffusion program that can be run on a personal computer. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the Millennium Eruption of Changbaishan volcano, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. The simulated results in the intermediate scope when the parameter b [ 0.3 are in good agreement with the results from measurement in situ, indicating that the model is reliable and the parameters used in the model are reasonable. We carried out more than 20,000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps related to high- and low- magnitude eruption scenarios in Changbaishan volcano, are constructed for several tephra thickness thresholds, such as 70, 20, 10 and 1 cm. The results from this study can give support to the risk mitigation plans in Changbaishan area. Keywords Tephra fallout Dispersion model Hazard probability map Millennium eruption Changbaishan volcano
H. Yu (&) J. Xu B. Zhao B. Pan Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Volcano, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China e-mail: [email protected] P. Luan Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, Beijing 101149, China
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Nat Hazards
1 Introduction Tephra fallout constitutes a serious threat to people living around active volcanoes, because it can produce several undesirable effects such as collapse of roofs by ash loading, damage to agriculture, respiratory sickness and etc. (Costa et al. 2006). Once the tephra load exceeds 200 kg/m2 (about 10 cm thick of basaltic tephra or 20 cm thick of rhyolitic tephra), some weaker building roofs will collapse by pressure of tephra (Edward and Thomas 1995; Hoblitt et al. 1998; Mastrolorenzo et al. 2008). When the tephra load surpasses 700 kg/m2, all the building roofs will collapse (Bonadonna et al. 2005; Mastrolorenzo et al. 2008). And even for a tephra load of 10 kg/m2 (Edward and Thomas 1995; Hoblitt et al. 1998; Mastrolorenzo et al. 2008), it may cause serious destruction of agricultural crops. Tiny volcanic ashes suspended in the air can enter people’s respiratory tract and lung, and threaten people’s health (Baxter et al. 1981, 1986, 1999; Baxter 1999). More
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