Analysis of various thermodynamic instability parameters and their association with the rainfall during thunderstorm eve
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RESEARCH ARTICLE - ATMOSPHERIC & SPACE SCIENCES
Analysis of various thermodynamic instability parameters and their association with the rainfall during thunderstorm events over Anakapalle (Visakhapatnam district), India N. Umakanth1 · G. Ch. Satyanarayana1 · B. Simon2 · M. C. Rao3 · M. Tanooj Kumar4 · N. Ranga Babu5 Received: 16 December 2019 / Accepted: 28 August 2020 / Published online: 14 September 2020 © Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences 2020
Abstract Thunderstorm events usually take place in cumulonimbus clouds which are complemented with intense rainfall and highspeed winds. In general, rainfall parameter has massive significance when compared to other parameters. In this paper, a group of thunderstorm-related stability parameters were analyzed for pre-monsoon season only. Later, we also tried to study the association between thunderstorm-related stability parameters and rainfall parameter in pre-monsoon season over Anakapalle (Visakhapatnam district) during 2001–2010. We have utilized ERA-Interim ECMWF reanalysis daily datasets for this study. We also tried to compare IMD thunderstorm occurrence days with NOAA CPC-calculated rainfall days in pre-monsoon season over Anakapalle region for every year during 2001–2010. Out of those parameters, upward vertical velocity, convective available potential energy, K-index (KI), humidity index and total totals index parameters have shown good thresholds supporting the rainfall activity during pre-monsoon season. Later, we have also attempted the prediction of DCI and KI parameters over Anakapalle region using artificial neural network (ANN) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) techniques. In comparison between the two techniques, ANN technique has shown good correlation with ERAInterim ECMWF reanalysis data. Keywords Rainfall · Deep convective index · Humidity index · Upper vertical velocity
Introduction Thunderstorm events are one of the dangerous weather events that are linked with lightning, speedy winds, thunder and rainfall. These events develop at faster pace which form within two hours with 1 m to 20 km spatial scale (Saha et al. 2014). These events are assisted by mechanisms like air parcel lifting, high moisture incursion and conditional * N. Umakanth [email protected] 1
Department of Atmospheric Science, Koneru Lakshmaiah Education Foundation, Vaddeswaram 522502, India
2
Space Applications Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad 380023, India
3
Department of Physics, Andhra Loyola College, Vijayawada 520008, India
4
Department of CSE, Dhanekula Institute of Engineering and Technology, Ganguru,Vijayawada 521139, India
5
Department of English, Andhra Loyola College, Vijayawada 520008, India
instability. These mechanisms help to study the dynamics present in the lower atmosphere. In air parcel lifting mechanism, the air parcel rises upwards as it is warmer than the surrounding air which gives a strong energy needed for the initialization of convection process. The temperature fluctuations that tak
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