Climate-driven Yield Variability for Winter Wheat in Henan Province, North China and its Relation to Large-scale Atmosph
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RESEARCH
Climate-driven Yield Variability for Winter Wheat in Henan Province, North China and its Relation to Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Indices Jiadong Chen1,2 · Hongwei Tian3,4 · Jin Huang5 · Jinchi Zhang1 · Fangmin Zhang5 Received: 22 July 2020 / Revised: 21 September 2020 / Accepted: 30 September 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The responses of wheat yield to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (LACI) were explored in Henan province, north China. With using the annual series of climate-driven yield index (CDYI) extracted from winter wheat yield collected in 17 cites and the monthly series of 15 types of LACI during 1988–2017, the main findings were as follows: (1) this province could be divided into four sub-regions (central-east, west, north, and south Henan) with different CDYI variations; (2) the CDYI in central-east, west, south Henan was dominated by a 3-year oscillation, while the CDYI in north Henan presented a notable 7.5-year oscillation; (3) among the four sub-regions, central-east Henan had the most significant CDYI-LACI relationship, and the higher Nino 1 + 2 in December were a key yield reduction signal; (4) during 2008–2017, the stronger increase of Nino1 + 2_in December had caused the yield decrease in central Henan by 6.58%. In summary, linking wheat yield to LACI anomalies should be instrumental in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change on wheat production. Keywords Winter wheat · Henan · North China · Climate-driven yield index · Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices
Introduction Accumulating evidence suggests that possible climate change could have crucial influence on agricultural production and consequent socio-economic impacts (Weiss * Jinchi Zhang [email protected] 1
Co‑Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2
Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation and Survey Bureau, Nanjing 210008, China
3
Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Zhengzhou 450003, China
4
Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China
5
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
et al. 2003). The changes in climate conditions would drive continued yield variability and loss in many regions of the world (Georgiou and Koukouli 2018). Many climate indicators significantly impacted by the large-scale atmospheric circulation show a long memory and may feed back to the atmosphere with time lags (Wang et al. 2015). Previous studies has demonstrated the use of antecedent large-scale atmospheric circulation signals to predict crop yield (Baigorria et al. 2
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