Extreme climate events under global warming in northern Fars Province, southern Iran
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Extreme climate events under global warming in northern Fars Province, southern Iran Mostafa Naderi 1 Received: 1 February 2019 / Accepted: 24 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The study area, with arid to semi-humid climates, is located in northern Fars Province, southern Iran. Daily precipitation and temperature data from 22 models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to study climate change for period 2026–2085 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Daily outputs of each CMIP5 model are downscaled to climatic stations over the study area using LARS-WG tool and transient change factors approach. Daily precipitation is downscaled to seven climatic stations while daily temperature downscaled to two stations. Downscaling results indicate that temperature will increase by + 1.85, + 2.5, and + 3.45 °C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively, while precipitation will reduce by 14, 22, and 20.8%, respectively, within the study area. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) analysis, performed for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, shows that frequency (duration) of normal periods will increase (decrease) under climate change, however, 12-month SPI analysis shows decreased frequency and increased duration for normal periods. Frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of wet periods may increase, decrease, or not change under climate change, depending on the SPI time scale. The study area will experience more frequent, longer-duration, severed, intensified droughts in the future due to global warming. Extreme storm analysis shows that precipitation depth of most frequent storms (2-year return period storms) will increase, but precipitation depth of less frequent storms (10- and 20-year return period storms) will decrease under climate change. Temperature enhancement, precipitation reduction, and longer-duration, severed, intensified droughts will increase water shortage in the future, resulting in water crisis and reduced security of food production over northern Fars Province. Keywords Climate change . RCPs . Extreme storm . Wet and dry periods . Northern Fars Province . Iran
1 Introduction Today, global warming is an obvious phenomenon (Pachauri et al. 2014). Anthropogenic forcing has made a substantial contribution to surface temperature increases since the midtwentieth century, affected the global water cycle since 1960, contributed to the retreat of glaciers since 1960s, increased surface melting of Greenland ice sheet since 1993, contributed to Arctic sea-ice loss since 1979, and have made a substantial contribution to increases in global upper ocean heat content and to global mean sea level rise observed since 1970s
* Mostafa Naderi [email protected]; [email protected] 1
Department of Earth Sciences, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran
(Pachauri et al. 2014). Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are mainly driven by population size, economic activity, lifestyle, en
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