Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations Mansour Almazroui1 · M. Nazrul Islam1 · Sajjad Saeed1,2,3 · Fahad Saeed1,4 · Muhammad Ismail1 Received: 28 December 2019 / Accepted: 20 October 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract This paper presents the changes in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The changes are obtained by analyzing the multimodel ensemble from 31 CMIP6 models for the near (2030–2059) and far (2070–2099) future periods, with reference to the base period 1981–2010, under three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Observations show that the annual temperature is rising at the rate of 0.63 ˚C decade–1 (significant at the 99% confidence level), while annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 6.3 mm d ecade–1 (significant at the 90% confidence level), averaged over Saudi Arabia. For the near (far) future period, the 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.9 (1.2–2.1) ˚C, 1.4–2.1 (2.3–3.4) ˚C, and 1.8–2.7 (4.1–5.8) ˚C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Higher warming is projected in the summer than in the winter, while the Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) is projected to warm more than Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP), by the end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation, a dipole-like pattern is found, with a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the SAP, and a decrease over the NAP. The 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged precipitation over the whole Arabian Peninsula is projected to change by 5 to 28 (–3 to 29) %, 5 to 31 (4 to 49) %, and 1 to 38 (12 to 107) % under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, in the near (far) future. Overall, the full ranges in CMIP6 remain higher than the CMIP5 models, which points towards a higher climate sensitivity of some of the CMIP6 climate models to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to the CMIP5. The CMIP6 dataset confirmed previous findings of changes in future climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. The results presented in this study will be useful for impact studies, and ultimately in devising future policies for adaptation in the region. Keywords Projection · Temperature · Precipitation · Arabian peninsula · CMIP6
1 Introduction The climate of the Arabian Peninsula is semi-arid to arid, with high annual temperatures and low precipitation, making it one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the Middle East, as well as in Southwest Asia. The northern part of the * Mansour Almazroui [email protected] 1
Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/ Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, PO Box 80208, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
2
The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
3
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Le
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